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Wednesday, September 2, 2009

The June 24th high of 1.1021 has capped all price action since that date. The market is currently testing an important level of support around 1.0556. This level has been tested several times and is likely to be exceeded to the downside. A logical next target is between 1.0370 – 1.0200.


Daily Gold chart as at 28 August 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

TECHNICALS

MACD – declining, in negative territory.
Stochastic – weak, around the 20 level.
SMA 200 – flat at 1.1160.
R1 – resistance at 1.1020
S1 – 1.0650
S2 – 1.0367
S3 – 1.0020

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.
The trend is down. Small upward reactions should not be significant (assuming there is no major intervention), at least until support is reached, between 92.60 – 91.75.

(Read more here)
The price of FCPO went into a bullish rally for one month in the mid-July to mid-August. The price climbed RM525 per metric ton or 26% from a low of RM1,990 to a high of RM2,515. The price then went into a correction, goes to a low of RM2,234 before settling at RM2,366 at the end of the month. The RM2,234 low was a 50% retracement from the one month bullish rally and the 30-day moving average line.

Technically, the price is still in a long term up trend but in a correction. The 90-day moving average is still increasing but the shorter averages are mixed. In the last one week of the month, market was uncertain as it traded in a tight trading range. The price of FCPO is currently slightly above the long term 15- and 30- week moving averages. A new up trend line is developed and is currently at RM2,300 and increasing.

Read more here

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

The sideways correction with a slight upward slope, continues. Previous lows were not exceeded when the market printed a short term low at 1.4044 on August 17th. The market is in a relatively weak uptrend.

At this moment EURUSD is range bound between the August 17th low and the August 15th high of 1.4446. That high, marked R1 on the chart, is being tested right now.

Recent price action implies that resistance at R1 may be penetrated soon, but because resistance is strong, that cannot be predicted with absolute certainty.

What is expected, is that the market will eventually reach higher objectives as mentioned in last month’s commentary. Near term objectives are between 1.4490 – 1.4690.

Failure to exceed 1.4446 in the near future could send this currency pair down towards support around 1.4044.


Daily Eur/Usd chart as at 28 August 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.
The US equity market continues its bullish trend with a marginal increase. The DJI closed 4% higher month-to-month at 9,544.20 on Friday. Increase in housing sales, better than expected corporate earnings and positive statements from the central bank boost investors’ confidence. Investors were trading cautiously as the job market has not been improving much. The market has been supported well. For many days, the market started with a bearish note but turned bullish in the later session.


Weekly DJI chart as at 28 August 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor

Momentum indicators have been in convergence with the current upward rally. RSI and Momentum indicators are able to stay above its middle level and the ADX indicator started to rise again. This means that the uptrend is still strong and there is a high chance that the trend may continue to go higher. The inverted heard and shoulder chart pattern was confirmed when the DJI broke above 9,400 points and this pattern has a price target at 11,600 points. However, there is also a technical resistance at 10,330 points. However, if the benchmark index fails to stay above the immediate support level at 9,100 points, then we may see further correction downwards.


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Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Chief Market Strategist of Nextview, Mr. Benny Lee. For more articles and commentaries from Benny, click HERE.
The Singapore equity market was in a yo-yo swing last month after being bullish for five months. He similar situation happened in the month of June and the market continued its upward rally. The FTSTI traded in a sideway range between 2,521.36 and 2,700.78 points before closing at 2,642.80 on Friday. A month ago, the benchmark index was at 2,659 points. Investors were taking some profits as they are not sure whether the rally can continue. Prices are relatively high or overbought in the short term.


Weekly FTSTI chart as at 28 August 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor

The 20-day Bollinger bands difference is in a level where the current one-month correction is about to end. The momentum indicators are mixed. RSI and Momentum indicators are slightly bullish while the MACD and ADX shows a weakening up trend. Therefore a breakout below or above the immediate support or resistance level will determine the direction of the FTSTI. A break above the resistance level of 2,680 points is likely going to cause the index to rally to the next resistance level at 3,000 points. A break below the 2,520 points support level would likely push the index lower to the next support level at 2,400 points.

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Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Chief Market Strategist of Nextview, Mr. Benny Lee. For more articles and commentaries from Benny, click HERE.
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