USD/CHF: A market rally will soon be overdue.

Support at 1.0032 held until near the end of November. The February 18th, 2008 low of .9784 is almost certain to be tested in the next short while. There is minor support at .9934. Beyond that the way is fairly clear to the 15 year low of .9784, mentioned above.

Other downside targets range to .89 and beyond, however a market rally will soon be overdue.



TECHNICALS
KELTNER CHANNEL – Framing recent resistance and support quite well.
SMA200 – down-sloping at 1.0690 (not shown on chart)
EMA 20 – down, in support of the down trend.
Stochastic – in oversold territory
MACD – strong down but diverging from price.
R1 – nearby resistance at 1.0032
R2 -1.0223
R3 – more distant resistance at 1.0660.
S1 – nearby support at 1.0032
S2 - .9934
S3 - .9784

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

GBP/USD :Expect a test of the August high in the near future

GBPUSD has performed more poorly than expected for most of November.

Although its’ rise from March to August/09 seemed to be impulsive, the last 4 ½ months have failed to produce much follow-through momentum. Strong resistance at 1.7042 can be traced to previous levels of support and resistance as far back as 2005, and even 1998. Combinations of previous resistance and support create some of the strongest current levels of resistance and support as well.

Although the market has moved in a sideways correction since August, 2009, to the present, the market has so far been contained on the lower side by the .382 Fibonacci support level, measured from the January 23rd low of 1.3501 to the August 7th high of 1.7042. Bearish energy now seems to be dissipating over time rather than taking a large toll on value.

The current range is clearly defined until the high of 1.7042 is exceeded to the upside or the Oct. 13 low of 1.5707 is exceeded to the downside.

What looks to be a quite bearish correction immediately above the rising trend line on the chart, is quite possibly a so-called irregular correction, which is actually quite bullish in its’ implication. If this is the case, expect a test of the August high in the near future.



TECHNICALS
MACD – down, but in positive territory
Bollinger Bands – tightening, which may imply a more ranging market for a period of time.
Stochastic – rising from near its’ over sold level.
SMA200 – rising
EMA55- rising, immediately below current values.
R1 – resistance at 1.7042
R2 – 1.7550 (not shown on chart)
S1 – 1.6425
S2 – zone of support from 1.6210-1.6100
S3 – 1.5700

TECHNICALS
MACD – rising strongly, and with bullish divergence.
Stochastic – turning down from around the 80 evel.
SMA200- sloping downwards, far above the current price, at 1.0814.
EMA20- rising from below the market.

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

Benny Lee on BFM 89.9

Benny shares his views on Bursa Malaysia FBMKLCI and CPO Futures, US dollars and Airasia.

Benny Lee on BFM 89.9

EURO / US DOLLAR ANALYSIS and FORECAST

Is EUR/USD ready for a big swing down?

I ask myself that question because this currency pair appears to be sitting at an important crossroad. It’s received some support from a six-month old rising trend line and hasn’t moved far from there for several days.

On October 26th, it completed a five wave move up that began on August 17th/09. Generally after five waves a fairly large correction can be expected, but not guaranteed, and the drop for the October high of 1.5062 can’t be described as large in the relative sense since it currently approximates corrections that occurred in August and September.

To continue reading this article by Don Schellenberg, please click HERE.

USD / SWISS FRANC ANALYSIS and FORECAST

USD/CHF reached a logical downside target of 1.0032, and that was within last month’s second level of support at S2 (S1 on the current chart).

It also appears that since July 31st to the present time there has been a move of five waves, indicating that either a relatively strong corrective rally is due, or that a mid-term low is firmly in place.

At time of writing a few days of bullish activity have occurred, but a close above the recent high of 1.0337 and more importantly above the October high of 1.0452, must happen before we can anticipate a more serious rally.

The Stochastic indicator suggests that a minor cycle high is in place, so at least some days of downward correction will not be a surprise. Any drop below the October 23rd low of 1.0032 would negate bullish probabilities for the near term.


Daily USD/CHF chart as at 4 November 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

TECHNICALS
MACD – rising strongly, and with bullish divergence.
Stochastic – turning down from around the 80 evel.
SMA200- sloping downwards, far above the current price, at 1.0814.
EMA20- rising from below the market.

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

US Dollar vs Japanese Yen Analysis

A month ago I wrote in this column that “the market has a good chance of dropping to around 90 or even lower. On September 17th the market created a short term bottom at 88.22.

Although the market is currently rising, at 89.96, the rise is expected to be very short-lived. Another drop is expected soon, to test the December 17, 2008 low of 87.11.

Click here to continue reading (Market Insight):

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

Euro/US Dollar Analysis

On September 22/09, this currency pair finally stretched up to a visible level of resistance (R1 on the chart). This level is confirmed by at least two important Fibonacci ratios – one obtained by the Fibonacci retracement tool, and one by the projection tool.

These facts, of themselves, won’t prevent a further rise in Euro’s value. But there are signs that a significant downward correction will be due soon.

1) Since early June/09, the gradual up-move for EURUSD has largely been without correction and there have only been brief periods of trend.

2) Momentum and trend indicators began to turn down when the market reached the resistance level (R1) that has been on my watchlist for months.


Daily Eur/Usd chart as at 29 Sep 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

TECHNICALS
Stochastics – oversold
MACD - below its “0” line, and strongly down.
ADX – around its 24 level, reflecting the strength of the down trend.
SMA200 – rising at 1.5585
EMA20- down, at 1.6200
R1 – nearby resistance at 1.6467
R2 – 1.67522
S1 – 1.5769
S2 – zone of support from 1.5500-1.5400.

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

US Dollar vs Swiss Franc analysis

The June 24th high of 1.1021 has capped all price action since that date. The market is currently testing an important level of support around 1.0556. This level has been tested several times and is likely to be exceeded to the downside. A logical next target is between 1.0370 – 1.0200.


Daily Gold chart as at 28 August 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

TECHNICALS

MACD – declining, in negative territory.
Stochastic – weak, around the 20 level.
SMA 200 – flat at 1.1160.
R1 – resistance at 1.1020
S1 – 1.0650
S2 – 1.0367
S3 – 1.0020

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

Japanese Yen Analysis by Don Schellenberg

The trend is down. Small upward reactions should not be significant (assuming there is no major intervention), at least until support is reached, between 92.60 – 91.75.

(Read more here)

Euro Dollar Analysis : Upward bias

The sideways correction with a slight upward slope, continues. Previous lows were not exceeded when the market printed a short term low at 1.4044 on August 17th. The market is in a relatively weak uptrend.

At this moment EURUSD is range bound between the August 17th low and the August 15th high of 1.4446. That high, marked R1 on the chart, is being tested right now.

Recent price action implies that resistance at R1 may be penetrated soon, but because resistance is strong, that cannot be predicted with absolute certainty.

What is expected, is that the market will eventually reach higher objectives as mentioned in last month’s commentary. Near term objectives are between 1.4490 – 1.4690.

Failure to exceed 1.4446 in the near future could send this currency pair down towards support around 1.4044.


Daily Eur/Usd chart as at 28 August 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

EUR/USD Analysis

EURUSD has not yet recovered from it’s largest downward correction in nearly 10 years. Technically it’s still in an uptrend within a corrective phase. When this part of the corrective rally terminates, Euro dollar value should be between 1.4490-1.4690.

In the meantime there is a continuing to month correction of the rapid rally that began April 22nd and topped out at 1.4338 on June 3rd. This is a sideways and down move that should bottom out not lower than 1.3737. Any decline below this level would jeopardize the continuation of the uptrend.

The current downward move will probably end around mid-August, after which the uptrend should continue. Failure to reach the downside target near 1.3737 will be quite bullish.


Daily EURUSD chart with volume as at 30 July 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor Professional

TECHNICALS

SMA200 – rising at 1.3475
EMA20 – immediately above the market and curling down.
Li’s Sandwich indicator – gives a fairly accurate depiction of resistance and support that agrees with more complex mathematical measurements of the market.
R1 – Significant resistance at 1.4303
R2 – zone of resistance from 1.4490-1.4690.
S1 – a zone of support between 1.3777 – 1.3728
S2 – 1.3610 (not shown on chart).

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

FOREX: EUR/USD Analysis

On May 20th I wrote in this column as follows: ‘In any case there is a strong possibility that the market will reach to around 1.4170-1.4200 within the next couple of weeks’.

On June 1st EUR/USD reached and exceeded that level and on June 3rd created a five month high of 1.4338.

Market strength has tapered off somewhat. A few days of sideways correction is very probable. The market has reached a level of potentially strong resistance and fallen back slightly from there. If the market drops below the closest rising trend line marked on the chart, a larger correction could ensue.

On the up-side there are other attractive targets such as the resistance zone from 1.4620-1.4660. That area should be watched carefully as it could be a major turning point. However as long as the rising trend line is not penetrated convincingly, upside targets will still be within range.


Daily EUR/USD chart as at 4 June 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

TECHNICALS

Stochastic – in over bought level.
MACD - rising, but with weaker momentum
SMA200 – flat around 1.3170.
EMA20 – rising
TL1 – the lower, rising trend line.
TL2 – currently the rising trend line closest to price.

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

FOREX: USD/MYR Analysis

In last week’s column I wrote the following: ‘the sideways correction, as viewed right now, has some downside implications to it. A total reversal to the downside is not expected, but corrective action to around 3.4830 is reasonable and probable.’

As it turns out, support around 3.4830 held quite well, with only a couple of intraday spikes going slightly lower, with one daily close as low as 3.4821. For the last four days the market has had higher highs.

USDMYR has moved up to a relatively minor one month old down-sloping trend line. Without question this currency pair is moving into a zone of more resistance from 3.53290 to 3.5671, but there is a good chance that current momentum will carry this pair at least that high and possibly as high as 3.5980 within the next few sessions.

A failure of support around 3.4820 would bring other levels of support into focus.


Daily USD/MYR chart as at 28 May 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

TECHNICALS

NextView RSI – rising, in positive territory
Short Term Stochastic – rising
EMA5 – this very short term moving average is rising strongly
TL – the one month old, down-sloping trend line.
R1 – nearby resistance at 3.5670
R2 – 3.5980
R3 – 3.6550
S1 – zone of support from 3.4774-3.4670
S2 – 3.4350

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

FOREX: EUR/USD Analysis

There haven’t been any major surprises in the price movement of EURUSD since last weeks’ commentary, except that price has reached upside resistance sooner than I expected.

The Bearish Engulfing candle mentioned in last weeks’ column performed as expected – “…this does not mean that a major reversal is underway, but there is at least the possibility of a few days of sideways and corrective price movement”.

That did occur. Three days after the Bearish Engulfing signal, the market had broken below the upward sloping trend line but found strong support at 1.3422, almost exactly at last week’s S2 level on the chart. From there the market thrust upwards to reach the R2 level and achieving a two-month month high.

The market is reaching levels where fresh resistance can be expected, so at least some minor corrective price action can be expected to occur between the current price level (1.3806) and 1.3930.

In any case there is a strong possibility that the market will reach to around 1.4170-1.4200 within the next couple of weeks.


Daily EUR/USD chart as at 21 May 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

TECHNICALS

SMA200 – this long term indicator is still sloping down, around 1.3190.
EMA20 – up, in support of current price movement.
MACD – up in positive territory, but with weakening relative momentum.
Stochastic – rising again within overbought levels.
R1 – immediate resistance at 1.3930.
R- 1.4200
S1 – 1.3670
S2 – 1.3570
S3 – 1.3422

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

FOREX: EURO/USD analysis

This currency pair has been caught in a wide trading range for the past three weeks, in between the high of May 6th at 1.3581 and the low of May 22nd at 1.2885.

From March 19th to May 30th this market moved down and sideways within channel lines. Many traders see this as a flag pattern formation. In my view the formation is certainly not ideal since the internal waves are not quite normal for a flag. Generally, with an ideal flag, the break out would be in the direction of the so-called flag pole, which in this case would be up, but so far the break out above the upper channel line has been less than enthusiastic.

It seems that the best thing to do is identify levels of resistance and support with probable near term targets if on or the other level is exceeded.

One are of support that should prove significant is around 1.3100. A close below this level could seriously damage the potential for near term bullish action.


Daily EUR/USD chart as at 7 May 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

TECHNICALS
Stochastic – declining from it’s overbought level.
MACD – in positive territory but flattening out.
R1 – 1.3400
R2- 1.3740
R3 – 1.4180
S1- 1.3100
S2 – 1.2920

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

FOREX: USD/CNY Analysis - 23 April

The minor price fluctuations on this week’s chart imply that a test of the R1 resistance level should happen soon.

The market continues to move in a relatively narrow range. The pattern as viewed on last week’s chart had some downside implications. It seems the downside move to test S1 fulfilled that expectation.

At this moment S1 is key to what the market will do in the near term. My expectation is that the market will continue to range between S1 and R1. A penetration of S1 will force a reconsideration of this view.


Daily USD/CNY chart as at 23 April 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

TECHNICALS
Stochastic – down.
RSI – currently in negative territory, and flat.
EMA 200 – flat
EMA20 – beginning to flatten.

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

FOREX: EURO/US Dollar Analysis - 23 April

The market easily penetrated the 1.3100 support level and moved down to test support level number two at 1.2945 (S2 on last week’s chart), eventually reaching a low of 1.2885 before turning upwards.

Now the level that was support around 1.3100 has become a potential level of resistance to the current up-move. Failure to close above 1.3100, and more importantly, above 1.3170, will send this market sideways or downwards to test the new support level (S1 on the chart), and perhaps much lower.

On the upside, a break above 1.3170 would likely send this currency pair upwards to test the declining 200SMA and down-sloping trend line. A near-term test towards the recent low of 1.2885 is at least a possibility within the next several days.


Daily EUR/USD chart as at 23 April 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

TECHNICALS
Stochastic – rising.
MACD – down
NextView RSI – flat, below its’ 50 level.
R1 – resistance zone between 1.3100-1.3170
R2 – 1.3300
S1 – nearby support at 1.2885
S2 – 1.2730

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

FOREX: Euro Dollar has strengthened against the US Dollar

At the time of writing, the Euro dollar has strengthened against the US dollar, and may have potential to strengthen more in the near term. However, just today the market rose to a level of relatively strong resistance.

No important previous highs have been exceeded so far in the Euro’s rise, which makes somewhat vulnerable to areas of resistance. The resistance is appearing at 1.2780, very near to the R3 level mentioned in last week’s column.

A combination of forces at 1.287- is what the market is reacting to. Firstly, there is a one month old declining trend line precisely at that level as well as at least five Fibonacci ratios virtually piled on top of each other.

While the bearish reaction at 1.2870 was predictable it’s not yet clear how far the bears can push the market down.

A drop below 1.2700 would likely cause a decline that would test the low at 1.2455. On the other hand, a close above 1.2900 would likely send the market up to between 1.3000-1.3100.



TECHNICALS

MACD – rising strongly
Stochastic – rising strongly
EMA20 – rising slight, and below the current price

R1 – immediate resistance at 1.2870
R2 – zone of resistance between 1.3000-1.3100
S1 – immediate zone of support between 1.2715 – 1.2630
S2 – distant support at 1.2455

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

Come and visit Don Schellenberg at ATIC Kuala Lumpur on the 14th and 15th of March 2009

FOREX: USD/CNY Analysis

Once again there has been very little movement in value of the USD against the RMB.

There was a minor test of last week’s R1 level, which failed. For the moment the market appears to be quite comfortable in it’s fairly narrow trading range between the R1 and S1 levels identified on the chart.

There has been a slight upward pressure on the market which has not yet dissipated. A new break above R1 could potentially target R2. If that does not happen, expect more of the status quo.


Daily EUR/USD chart as at 5 March 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

TECHNICALS

NextVeiw RSI – flat
Stochastic – overbought level, and turning down slightly
EMA20 – flat
Bollinger Bands – flat and defining current levels of support and resistance
R1 – nearby resistance at 6.8340
R2 – 6.8500
S1 – support at 6.8130
S2 – 6.7925 (not shown on the chart)

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

Come and visit Don Schellenberg at ATIC Kuala Lumpur on the 14th and 15th of March 2009