Gold Analysis and Forecast

The long term potential for Gold is higher than what we’ll discuss in this article. My primary purpose here is to identify and confirm trend, and determine as best we can the logical price targets for gold during the month of November. The market continues to be very bullish, although there is evidence of temporary weakening momentum.

Click HERE to continue reading this analysis and forecast by Don Schellenberg

Commodities Bull

Prices of major commodities have found its footing in the past few months and the recent price actions and the weakening US dollar set to push prices of commodities to new highs. There are tell-tale signs that global economy is improving (at least that's what the analysts say) and demand for commodities is expected to increase to fuel the economy. Most commodities prices have broken out of the correction zone and I am expecting the bulls to pull the commodities market to fresh highs.

Crude Oil:
The price of Crude oil on NYMEX has just jumped above US74 a barrel, breaking out of the US$65 - US$64 correction range. It has a very high chance to rally into the regions of US$82 - US$85 region in the short term. It may even go to US$91 a barrel in the intermediate term of 6 months.

Gold
COMEX gold performance was extremely bullish as the price continues to make new historical highs. The price of Gold has came out of the correction period in early September and now has a price target of US$1,120 an ounce in the short term based on the triangle chart pattern price objective and US$1,300 in the intermediate term of 6 months.

Rubber
Price of Rubber has rallied quite strongly in the past few weeks and this bullish momentum is set to continue with a short term price target of JPY$230 a kg and an intermediate price objective of JPY$260.

Crude Palm Oil
Price of Crude Palm Oil has also showed strong support in the past two months and the increasing demand for this commodity has cause the price to start climbing. The bulls have just started to pull this market. Price is expected to hit RM2,400 in the short term and even climb to RM2,800 in the intermediate term of 6 months. See more detail analysis here.

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Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Chief Market Strategist of Nextview, Mr. Benny Lee. For more articles and commentaries from Benny, click HERE.

Gold Price Analysis

In general terms, gold has been testing its all-time high that was achieved on March 17, 2008, at a price of 1,033.90. So far, in 2009, there have been two attempts (some would say three), to reach or exceed that lofty high. Both of those attempts have failed.

Gold is still in an uptrend but showing signs of weakness. Trend indicators on the weekly chart are weak. ADX has risen slightly in the last month, but is below 15. Strong trends usually register 20-25 and higher.

he MACD is in positive territory but is diverging from price – indicating weakening momentum. Stochastics is dropping from its’ overbought level.

The chart pattern, especially from an Elliott Wave perspective, implies that an irregular flat correction has been underway since February 23, 2009, to the present time and is not yet complete. To be complete the market should swing down below 950 and possibly below 900.

Here’s the stickler. If my view of the pattern is correct, there should be one more attempt to move to the upside before the larger correction just mentioned occurs.

Mathematically calculated targets that seem reasonable for an upside move, in the near-term, range from 1,030. – 1,0460.

If the market drops below 970. before the potential rise just described, it will likely mean the high is capped until the irregular flat pattern has reached its downside objectives.


Weekly Gold futures chart from COMEX as at 29 September using NextVIEW Advisor.

In London, the five large market-makers who agree two "gold fixes" each day both to clear outstanding orders and act as a benchmark price – set the AM Gold Fix at $997 an ounce. "Net long" position (of bullish bets minus bearish bets) rose to a new all-time record equal to 795 tons in the Gold Futures and options market. The trust-fund traded as SDPR Gold on the New York stock market increase the volume of bullion held to back its shares by 0.7% to 1,094 tons. London's major Gold ETF provider, ETF Securities Ltd, said it's increased its bullion holdings to a record 261 tons.

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

Gold Analysis by Don Schellenberg

Price action on the Gold chart has been creating a very clear triangle, which has developed over the past six months.

A test of the July low, around $900 per ounce cannot be ruled out. That in itself would not prevent price from subsequently rising dramatically to the upside.


(Read more here)

Gold Price Analysis

Technically gold is still in a long term uptrend. This is true despite the fact that the high of 1033.90 on February 20, 2008 has not yet been exceeded. Near term, however, say for the month of August 2009, the outlook is not so bullish. In February 2009 there was a test of the 2008 high. The market rejected the attempt but the resulting decline was relatively modest in US dollar terms. Another attempt to test the high may be underway at this time but the attempt appears to be struggling.

Bullish factors – Gold closed higher on the monthly chart during 2009 than in 2008, but with a lower high. The monthly close in May was the highest is modern history, but without a higher high. The persistent uptrend that began in 1999 has already had a correction of almost 50%. The move up from October 24/08 to February 20/09 was strong.

Bearish Factors – Recent fluctuations in value have been corrective rather than trending. The 7 month old rising trend line has been broken to the downside. Third failure to reach a new high will have bearish implications.


Daily Gold chart as at 30 July 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

TECHNICALS
Most popular indicators on monthly and weekly charts are in positive territory, but with low momentum.

MACD – flat at 50

NextView RSI – at 50 level

Stochastic – declining from Over Bought.

SMA 200 – at 880., rising slightly

EMA20 – flat, above current price

TL1- seven month old trend line, which has been penetrated to the downside and is now being tested.

TL2 – five month declining trendline.

R1 – resistance level at 966.70 R2 – 1007.70

S1 – Nearby support at 904.80 S2 - 865.60 S3- 806. (not shown on chart)

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

Price of Gold anticipated to pause briefly

Two weeks ago I announced that if the market had sufficient strength and momentum to breach R1 (950-960) convincingly, R2 (976) would be the next logical upside target. That target was surpassed and there is now a three month high at 990.

Price is currently at 969.50. I anticipate that gold will pause briefly with sideways activity before a testing the February 20th, 2009, high of 1006. and the March 17th, 2008 high of 1032.50.

A downside break below 930. would force a reconsideration of this outlook.


Daily Gold chart as at 4 June 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

TECHNICALS
MACD – in positive territory with weakening momentum
Stochastic – dropping down from it’s overbought level.
Li’s Sandwich – the top line indicates potential resistance, and the bottom line indicates potential support.
R1 – immediate resistance at 990.
R2 – 2006
S1 – a zone of support from 946-930.
S2 – 912.

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

Price of Gold rapidly moving into resistance level

Gold is rapidly moving closer to last week’s #2 resistance target. (R1 on today’s chart). That is also the top of the parallel channel.

This resistance level is sufficiently strong that I expect some downward pressure from there. It is an important level to watch, and for some traders to consider taking at least partial profit off their positions.

If there is sufficient strength and momentum to breach R1 convincingly, then R2 will be the next logical upside target. Failure to penetrate R1 could result in a multi-day retreat downwards.


Daily Gold chart as at 21 May 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

TECHNICALS

SMA200 – rising weakly around 867
EMA20 – rising strongly
Stochastic – overbought and rising
Li’s Sandwich – indicates resistance around the R1 level on the chart.
R1 – immediate resistance at 950-960.
R2 – 976
S1 – 917
S2 -900

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.