USD/CHF: A market rally will soon be overdue.

Support at 1.0032 held until near the end of November. The February 18th, 2008 low of .9784 is almost certain to be tested in the next short while. There is minor support at .9934. Beyond that the way is fairly clear to the 15 year low of .9784, mentioned above.

Other downside targets range to .89 and beyond, however a market rally will soon be overdue.



TECHNICALS
KELTNER CHANNEL – Framing recent resistance and support quite well.
SMA200 – down-sloping at 1.0690 (not shown on chart)
EMA 20 – down, in support of the down trend.
Stochastic – in oversold territory
MACD – strong down but diverging from price.
R1 – nearby resistance at 1.0032
R2 -1.0223
R3 – more distant resistance at 1.0660.
S1 – nearby support at 1.0032
S2 - .9934
S3 - .9784

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

GBP/USD :Expect a test of the August high in the near future

GBPUSD has performed more poorly than expected for most of November.

Although its’ rise from March to August/09 seemed to be impulsive, the last 4 ½ months have failed to produce much follow-through momentum. Strong resistance at 1.7042 can be traced to previous levels of support and resistance as far back as 2005, and even 1998. Combinations of previous resistance and support create some of the strongest current levels of resistance and support as well.

Although the market has moved in a sideways correction since August, 2009, to the present, the market has so far been contained on the lower side by the .382 Fibonacci support level, measured from the January 23rd low of 1.3501 to the August 7th high of 1.7042. Bearish energy now seems to be dissipating over time rather than taking a large toll on value.

The current range is clearly defined until the high of 1.7042 is exceeded to the upside or the Oct. 13 low of 1.5707 is exceeded to the downside.

What looks to be a quite bearish correction immediately above the rising trend line on the chart, is quite possibly a so-called irregular correction, which is actually quite bullish in its’ implication. If this is the case, expect a test of the August high in the near future.



TECHNICALS
MACD – down, but in positive territory
Bollinger Bands – tightening, which may imply a more ranging market for a period of time.
Stochastic – rising from near its’ over sold level.
SMA200 – rising
EMA55- rising, immediately below current values.
R1 – resistance at 1.7042
R2 – 1.7550 (not shown on chart)
S1 – 1.6425
S2 – zone of support from 1.6210-1.6100
S3 – 1.5700

TECHNICALS
MACD – rising strongly, and with bullish divergence.
Stochastic – turning down from around the 80 evel.
SMA200- sloping downwards, far above the current price, at 1.0814.
EMA20- rising from below the market.

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

Gold Analysis and Forecast

The long term potential for Gold is higher than what we’ll discuss in this article. My primary purpose here is to identify and confirm trend, and determine as best we can the logical price targets for gold during the month of November. The market continues to be very bullish, although there is evidence of temporary weakening momentum.

Click HERE to continue reading this analysis and forecast by Don Schellenberg

EURO / US DOLLAR ANALYSIS and FORECAST

Is EUR/USD ready for a big swing down?

I ask myself that question because this currency pair appears to be sitting at an important crossroad. It’s received some support from a six-month old rising trend line and hasn’t moved far from there for several days.

On October 26th, it completed a five wave move up that began on August 17th/09. Generally after five waves a fairly large correction can be expected, but not guaranteed, and the drop for the October high of 1.5062 can’t be described as large in the relative sense since it currently approximates corrections that occurred in August and September.

To continue reading this article by Don Schellenberg, please click HERE.

USD / SWISS FRANC ANALYSIS and FORECAST

USD/CHF reached a logical downside target of 1.0032, and that was within last month’s second level of support at S2 (S1 on the current chart).

It also appears that since July 31st to the present time there has been a move of five waves, indicating that either a relatively strong corrective rally is due, or that a mid-term low is firmly in place.

At time of writing a few days of bullish activity have occurred, but a close above the recent high of 1.0337 and more importantly above the October high of 1.0452, must happen before we can anticipate a more serious rally.

The Stochastic indicator suggests that a minor cycle high is in place, so at least some days of downward correction will not be a surprise. Any drop below the October 23rd low of 1.0032 would negate bullish probabilities for the near term.


Daily USD/CHF chart as at 4 November 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

TECHNICALS
MACD – rising strongly, and with bullish divergence.
Stochastic – turning down from around the 80 evel.
SMA200- sloping downwards, far above the current price, at 1.0814.
EMA20- rising from below the market.

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

Gold Price Analysis

In general terms, gold has been testing its all-time high that was achieved on March 17, 2008, at a price of 1,033.90. So far, in 2009, there have been two attempts (some would say three), to reach or exceed that lofty high. Both of those attempts have failed.

Gold is still in an uptrend but showing signs of weakness. Trend indicators on the weekly chart are weak. ADX has risen slightly in the last month, but is below 15. Strong trends usually register 20-25 and higher.

he MACD is in positive territory but is diverging from price – indicating weakening momentum. Stochastics is dropping from its’ overbought level.

The chart pattern, especially from an Elliott Wave perspective, implies that an irregular flat correction has been underway since February 23, 2009, to the present time and is not yet complete. To be complete the market should swing down below 950 and possibly below 900.

Here’s the stickler. If my view of the pattern is correct, there should be one more attempt to move to the upside before the larger correction just mentioned occurs.

Mathematically calculated targets that seem reasonable for an upside move, in the near-term, range from 1,030. – 1,0460.

If the market drops below 970. before the potential rise just described, it will likely mean the high is capped until the irregular flat pattern has reached its downside objectives.


Weekly Gold futures chart from COMEX as at 29 September using NextVIEW Advisor.

In London, the five large market-makers who agree two "gold fixes" each day both to clear outstanding orders and act as a benchmark price – set the AM Gold Fix at $997 an ounce. "Net long" position (of bullish bets minus bearish bets) rose to a new all-time record equal to 795 tons in the Gold Futures and options market. The trust-fund traded as SDPR Gold on the New York stock market increase the volume of bullion held to back its shares by 0.7% to 1,094 tons. London's major Gold ETF provider, ETF Securities Ltd, said it's increased its bullion holdings to a record 261 tons.

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

US Dollar vs Japanese Yen Analysis

A month ago I wrote in this column that “the market has a good chance of dropping to around 90 or even lower. On September 17th the market created a short term bottom at 88.22.

Although the market is currently rising, at 89.96, the rise is expected to be very short-lived. Another drop is expected soon, to test the December 17, 2008 low of 87.11.

Click here to continue reading (Market Insight):

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

Euro/US Dollar Analysis

On September 22/09, this currency pair finally stretched up to a visible level of resistance (R1 on the chart). This level is confirmed by at least two important Fibonacci ratios – one obtained by the Fibonacci retracement tool, and one by the projection tool.

These facts, of themselves, won’t prevent a further rise in Euro’s value. But there are signs that a significant downward correction will be due soon.

1) Since early June/09, the gradual up-move for EURUSD has largely been without correction and there have only been brief periods of trend.

2) Momentum and trend indicators began to turn down when the market reached the resistance level (R1) that has been on my watchlist for months.


Daily Eur/Usd chart as at 29 Sep 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

TECHNICALS
Stochastics – oversold
MACD - below its “0” line, and strongly down.
ADX – around its 24 level, reflecting the strength of the down trend.
SMA200 – rising at 1.5585
EMA20- down, at 1.6200
R1 – nearby resistance at 1.6467
R2 – 1.67522
S1 – 1.5769
S2 – zone of support from 1.5500-1.5400.

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

Gold Analysis by Don Schellenberg

Price action on the Gold chart has been creating a very clear triangle, which has developed over the past six months.

A test of the July low, around $900 per ounce cannot be ruled out. That in itself would not prevent price from subsequently rising dramatically to the upside.


(Read more here)

Japanese Yen Analysis by Don Schellenberg

The trend is down. Small upward reactions should not be significant (assuming there is no major intervention), at least until support is reached, between 92.60 – 91.75.

(Read more here)

Euro Dollar Analysis : Upward bias

The sideways correction with a slight upward slope, continues. Previous lows were not exceeded when the market printed a short term low at 1.4044 on August 17th. The market is in a relatively weak uptrend.

At this moment EURUSD is range bound between the August 17th low and the August 15th high of 1.4446. That high, marked R1 on the chart, is being tested right now.

Recent price action implies that resistance at R1 may be penetrated soon, but because resistance is strong, that cannot be predicted with absolute certainty.

What is expected, is that the market will eventually reach higher objectives as mentioned in last month’s commentary. Near term objectives are between 1.4490 – 1.4690.

Failure to exceed 1.4446 in the near future could send this currency pair down towards support around 1.4044.


Daily Eur/Usd chart as at 28 August 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

Gold Price Analysis

Technically gold is still in a long term uptrend. This is true despite the fact that the high of 1033.90 on February 20, 2008 has not yet been exceeded. Near term, however, say for the month of August 2009, the outlook is not so bullish. In February 2009 there was a test of the 2008 high. The market rejected the attempt but the resulting decline was relatively modest in US dollar terms. Another attempt to test the high may be underway at this time but the attempt appears to be struggling.

Bullish factors – Gold closed higher on the monthly chart during 2009 than in 2008, but with a lower high. The monthly close in May was the highest is modern history, but without a higher high. The persistent uptrend that began in 1999 has already had a correction of almost 50%. The move up from October 24/08 to February 20/09 was strong.

Bearish Factors – Recent fluctuations in value have been corrective rather than trending. The 7 month old rising trend line has been broken to the downside. Third failure to reach a new high will have bearish implications.


Daily Gold chart as at 30 July 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

TECHNICALS
Most popular indicators on monthly and weekly charts are in positive territory, but with low momentum.

MACD – flat at 50

NextView RSI – at 50 level

Stochastic – declining from Over Bought.

SMA 200 – at 880., rising slightly

EMA20 – flat, above current price

TL1- seven month old trend line, which has been penetrated to the downside and is now being tested.

TL2 – five month declining trendline.

R1 – resistance level at 966.70 R2 – 1007.70

S1 – Nearby support at 904.80 S2 - 865.60 S3- 806. (not shown on chart)

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

Price of Gold anticipated to pause briefly

Two weeks ago I announced that if the market had sufficient strength and momentum to breach R1 (950-960) convincingly, R2 (976) would be the next logical upside target. That target was surpassed and there is now a three month high at 990.

Price is currently at 969.50. I anticipate that gold will pause briefly with sideways activity before a testing the February 20th, 2009, high of 1006. and the March 17th, 2008 high of 1032.50.

A downside break below 930. would force a reconsideration of this outlook.


Daily Gold chart as at 4 June 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

TECHNICALS
MACD – in positive territory with weakening momentum
Stochastic – dropping down from it’s overbought level.
Li’s Sandwich – the top line indicates potential resistance, and the bottom line indicates potential support.
R1 – immediate resistance at 990.
R2 – 2006
S1 – a zone of support from 946-930.
S2 – 912.

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

FOREX: EUR/USD Analysis

On May 20th I wrote in this column as follows: ‘In any case there is a strong possibility that the market will reach to around 1.4170-1.4200 within the next couple of weeks’.

On June 1st EUR/USD reached and exceeded that level and on June 3rd created a five month high of 1.4338.

Market strength has tapered off somewhat. A few days of sideways correction is very probable. The market has reached a level of potentially strong resistance and fallen back slightly from there. If the market drops below the closest rising trend line marked on the chart, a larger correction could ensue.

On the up-side there are other attractive targets such as the resistance zone from 1.4620-1.4660. That area should be watched carefully as it could be a major turning point. However as long as the rising trend line is not penetrated convincingly, upside targets will still be within range.


Daily EUR/USD chart as at 4 June 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

TECHNICALS

Stochastic – in over bought level.
MACD - rising, but with weaker momentum
SMA200 – flat around 1.3170.
EMA20 – rising
TL1 – the lower, rising trend line.
TL2 – currently the rising trend line closest to price.

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

Price of Gold rapidly moving into resistance level

Gold is rapidly moving closer to last week’s #2 resistance target. (R1 on today’s chart). That is also the top of the parallel channel.

This resistance level is sufficiently strong that I expect some downward pressure from there. It is an important level to watch, and for some traders to consider taking at least partial profit off their positions.

If there is sufficient strength and momentum to breach R1 convincingly, then R2 will be the next logical upside target. Failure to penetrate R1 could result in a multi-day retreat downwards.


Daily Gold chart as at 21 May 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

TECHNICALS

SMA200 – rising weakly around 867
EMA20 – rising strongly
Stochastic – overbought and rising
Li’s Sandwich – indicates resistance around the R1 level on the chart.
R1 – immediate resistance at 950-960.
R2 – 976
S1 – 917
S2 -900

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

FOREX: EUR/USD Analysis

There haven’t been any major surprises in the price movement of EURUSD since last weeks’ commentary, except that price has reached upside resistance sooner than I expected.

The Bearish Engulfing candle mentioned in last weeks’ column performed as expected – “…this does not mean that a major reversal is underway, but there is at least the possibility of a few days of sideways and corrective price movement”.

That did occur. Three days after the Bearish Engulfing signal, the market had broken below the upward sloping trend line but found strong support at 1.3422, almost exactly at last week’s S2 level on the chart. From there the market thrust upwards to reach the R2 level and achieving a two-month month high.

The market is reaching levels where fresh resistance can be expected, so at least some minor corrective price action can be expected to occur between the current price level (1.3806) and 1.3930.

In any case there is a strong possibility that the market will reach to around 1.4170-1.4200 within the next couple of weeks.


Daily EUR/USD chart as at 21 May 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

TECHNICALS

SMA200 – this long term indicator is still sloping down, around 1.3190.
EMA20 – up, in support of current price movement.
MACD – up in positive territory, but with weakening relative momentum.
Stochastic – rising again within overbought levels.
R1 – immediate resistance at 1.3930.
R- 1.4200
S1 – 1.3670
S2 – 1.3570
S3 – 1.3422

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

GOLD Analysis - Price Correction

It’s my view that the strong up-move that began in mid-November, 2008, was actually part of a larger corrective formation. In fact all of the movement of Gold since then, both up and down, has been corrective in nature.

If that is the case, in not too many weeks we should begin to see a decline in gold value below the recent low set on April 17th at 864.50.

Meanwhile, however, the market is rising. The first upside target is the top of the rising channel which is currently around 936. A further rise to around 950 is a real possibility. These areas should exert significant resistance. If and when the market reaches there we should pay careful attention to the market reaction, whether positive or negative.


Daily Gold chart as at 7 May 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

TECHNICALS
NextView RSI – rising
Stochastic – rising
Li’s Sandwich – the outer bands indicate possible levels of support and resistance.
Channel – the channel creates a natural first target for the rise in gold’s value.
R1 – nearby, relatively weak resistance, at 918.50
R2 – 935.
R3 – 951.
S1 – 880.50
S2 – 864.50

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

FOREX: EURO/USD analysis

This currency pair has been caught in a wide trading range for the past three weeks, in between the high of May 6th at 1.3581 and the low of May 22nd at 1.2885.

From March 19th to May 30th this market moved down and sideways within channel lines. Many traders see this as a flag pattern formation. In my view the formation is certainly not ideal since the internal waves are not quite normal for a flag. Generally, with an ideal flag, the break out would be in the direction of the so-called flag pole, which in this case would be up, but so far the break out above the upper channel line has been less than enthusiastic.

It seems that the best thing to do is identify levels of resistance and support with probable near term targets if on or the other level is exceeded.

One are of support that should prove significant is around 1.3100. A close below this level could seriously damage the potential for near term bullish action.


Daily EUR/USD chart as at 7 May 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

TECHNICALS
Stochastic – declining from it’s overbought level.
MACD – in positive territory but flattening out.
R1 – 1.3400
R2- 1.3740
R3 – 1.4180
S1- 1.3100
S2 – 1.2920

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

FOREX: USD/CNY Analysis - 23 April

The minor price fluctuations on this week’s chart imply that a test of the R1 resistance level should happen soon.

The market continues to move in a relatively narrow range. The pattern as viewed on last week’s chart had some downside implications. It seems the downside move to test S1 fulfilled that expectation.

At this moment S1 is key to what the market will do in the near term. My expectation is that the market will continue to range between S1 and R1. A penetration of S1 will force a reconsideration of this view.


Daily USD/CNY chart as at 23 April 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

TECHNICALS
Stochastic – down.
RSI – currently in negative territory, and flat.
EMA 200 – flat
EMA20 – beginning to flatten.

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

FOREX: EURO/US Dollar Analysis - 23 April

The market easily penetrated the 1.3100 support level and moved down to test support level number two at 1.2945 (S2 on last week’s chart), eventually reaching a low of 1.2885 before turning upwards.

Now the level that was support around 1.3100 has become a potential level of resistance to the current up-move. Failure to close above 1.3100, and more importantly, above 1.3170, will send this market sideways or downwards to test the new support level (S1 on the chart), and perhaps much lower.

On the upside, a break above 1.3170 would likely send this currency pair upwards to test the declining 200SMA and down-sloping trend line. A near-term test towards the recent low of 1.2885 is at least a possibility within the next several days.


Daily EUR/USD chart as at 23 April 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

TECHNICALS
Stochastic – rising.
MACD – down
NextView RSI – flat, below its’ 50 level.
R1 – resistance zone between 1.3100-1.3170
R2 – 1.3300
S1 – nearby support at 1.2885
S2 – 1.2730

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.