Crude Oil Analysis - Bullish

Up trend developing steadily. The NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Crude Oil price has developed a healthy up trend since the steep fall from US$145 in July last year to a low of $35 earlier this year. The current price is $69.50. The price movement has formed an up trend line supported by the pivot low in early this year and the recent pivot low 3 weeks ago. The price is also being supported by the 15 and 30-week moving average which has now crossed to form a bullish reversal in the long term.


Daily Crude Oil chart with volume as at 31 July 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor Professional

The up trend is supported by good bullish momentum indicated by increasing highs from the RSI, MACD and Momentum indicators. With this strong momentum, there is a high chance that the prices of crude oil to create a new high for this year and possibly test the resistance level at $77, based on a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the long term bear trend. Support is at the up trend line and moving averages at $60.

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Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Chief Market Strategist of Nextview, Mr. Benny Lee. For more articles and commentaries from Benny, click HERE.

HOSE Vietnam Stock Index(VNI) – Bulls are dominating in this correction period

The Vietnam market has been performing very well since the VNI hitting a bottom of 235.5 points in end February this year. The market took a turn and rallied more than 100% to close at a high of 512.46 points on the 9th of June. Then the market took a breather and corrected downwards to 412.88 points (support level of an uptrend line) before rebounding to close at 466.76 points today. However, just about two years ago, the benchmark index was above 1,000 points.


Daily VNI chart as at 31 July 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

Technically, the market is still in a major up trend correction with the short term 30-day moving average declining while the longer term 60 and 90-day moving averages are increasing. The Momentum indicators which shows bearish domination last month has changed its course to be bullish. The RSI and Momentum indicators are now above the mid-level that separates bull and bear strength. This means that the bulls are likely going to take the market out of the correction and bring it to test the 520 points resistance level again. Support level is at 410 points.

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Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Chief Market Strategist of Nextview, Mr. Benny Lee. For more articles and commentaries from Benny, click HERE.

Gold Price Analysis

Technically gold is still in a long term uptrend. This is true despite the fact that the high of 1033.90 on February 20, 2008 has not yet been exceeded. Near term, however, say for the month of August 2009, the outlook is not so bullish. In February 2009 there was a test of the 2008 high. The market rejected the attempt but the resulting decline was relatively modest in US dollar terms. Another attempt to test the high may be underway at this time but the attempt appears to be struggling.

Bullish factors – Gold closed higher on the monthly chart during 2009 than in 2008, but with a lower high. The monthly close in May was the highest is modern history, but without a higher high. The persistent uptrend that began in 1999 has already had a correction of almost 50%. The move up from October 24/08 to February 20/09 was strong.

Bearish Factors – Recent fluctuations in value have been corrective rather than trending. The 7 month old rising trend line has been broken to the downside. Third failure to reach a new high will have bearish implications.


Daily Gold chart as at 30 July 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

TECHNICALS
Most popular indicators on monthly and weekly charts are in positive territory, but with low momentum.

MACD – flat at 50

NextView RSI – at 50 level

Stochastic – declining from Over Bought.

SMA 200 – at 880., rising slightly

EMA20 – flat, above current price

TL1- seven month old trend line, which has been penetrated to the downside and is now being tested.

TL2 – five month declining trendline.

R1 – resistance level at 966.70 R2 – 1007.70

S1 – Nearby support at 904.80 S2 - 865.60 S3- 806. (not shown on chart)

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Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (SETI) – Bulls taking charge again

The Thailand market went into a downward correction after the SETI rallying slightly above 50% from about 410 points in March to 628 points on 12 June. The SETI then went to a low of 560 points in mid-April before ascending to the current level of 624 points. Despite the political uncertainty in Thailand, the market performed pretty well. Just a year ago the benchmark index was trading above 800 points. Therefore the SETI has retraced 50% from the bear trend that started in early 2008 and this is comparable to markets like Singapore and Hong Kong.


Daily KLCI chart with volume as at 31 July 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor Professional

Technically, the market is still in a major up trend correction with the short term 30-day moving average declining while the longer term 60 and 90-day moving averages are increasing. The bulls have taken over from the bears last week when momentum-based technical indicators like the RSI and Momentum are now above the mid-level. With this bullish momentum, the SETI may test and break above the 640 points resistance level and possible move to the next resistance level at 700 points. SETI support level is at 560 points.

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Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Chief Market Strategist of Nextview, Mr. Benny Lee. For more articles and commentaries from Benny, click HERE.

Crude Palm Oil Analysis - bullish

The price of FCPO went under the long term 90-day average last month and continues to move downwards within the down trend channel defined by the S1 and R1 lines in the chart below. The price went to the support level at S1 in mid-July at around RM 1,990 per metric ton and created an opportunity to go long. At this point, the RSI was in a divergence in with FCPO down trend. The price then rallied to the current level at RM 2,189. For those who are able to long at the support level there is a RM100 opportunity in half a month.

Now, the price of FCPO is at the resistance level of the down trend channel and slightly below the 90-day moving average which is currently at RM2,350. The momentum indicators are diverging against the current down trend. The RSI, MACD and Momentum indicators are rising when price is falling. This means that the down trend is weak and a trend reversal is expected.
The price of FCPO is currently at the long term average, defined from the 15 and 30-week average. With a bullish momentum forming, the current level may be attractive in the long term. The short term down trend may change its course.


Daily KLCI chart with volume as at 31 July 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor Professional

Although price is currently at the downtrend resistance level, there is a high chance of price moving higher because of the developing bullish momentum and especially if it breaks above the immediate resistance level which is currently at the RM2,250 and rally to the next resistance level at RM2,350. A more optimistic level is at RM2,800.

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Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Chief Market Strategist of Nextview, Mr. Benny Lee. For more articles and commentaries from Benny, click HERE.

FTSE Straits Times Index (FTSTI) – Uptrend can be sustained

The Singapore market was extremely bullish last month after about a month of consolidation in June especially after breaking above the 2,400 points resistance level. The bulls continue starts to dominate the market in early July and the STI rallied 326 points or 14% in a month to close at 2,659.20 points end of July. The Singapore market is one of the best performing markets in the Asian region last month. The benchmark index has already increased 82% from the low in March this year.


Daily STI chart with volume as at 31 July 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor Professional

Technical indicators turned positive again especially momentum indicators that measures trend strength. The RSI, ADX and Momentum indicators continue to make new highs since early July and this means that the current up trend or rally can be sustained. Therefore, there is a high chance for the STI to climb higher but there is a technical resistance at 2,680 points, based on the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the end-2007 to early-2009 bear trend. If the STI is able to break above this resistance level, then the next resistance level is at 3,000 points. Support level remains at 2,400 points with a minor support at 2,500 points.

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Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Chief Market Strategist of Nextview, Mr. Benny Lee. For more articles and commentaries from Benny, click HERE.