Thursday, May 29, 2008

The DJI struggled and was unable to get out of the major down trend after it failed to test the 13,200 points resistance level since last month. The DJI only managed to climb as high as 13,136.69 points before settling at 12,646.22 points. It broke the immediate support level instead at 12,800 points and this means that the up trend has been reversed.

The confirmed double top chart formation on the daily chart confirms the reversal. However, the down trend is still at the middle formation stage. This formation causes other markets especially the Asian markets to speculate a down trend. Most Asian indices declined lower than the DJI. The down trend can only be formed if the DJI fails to go above 13,132 points. In the mean time, the DJI is expected to fall further and may test the 12,100 points support level. Resistance level remains at 13,200 points.

Article by Benny Lee
The political scene seems to be more interesting than the financial markets, now with stronger opposition voice in parliament and new state governments trying to settle down. In the stock market, the KLCI went into a trading range last month. It did not even try to test the 1,340 points resistance level. The KLCI only managed to went to as high as 1,305.09 points since last month before settling at 1,261.82.

On the daily chart, the KLCI has formed a double top chart formation which indicates that the KLCI is now at a toppish position. The double top formation was confirmed when it broke its neckline at 1,270 points just a few days ago. The RSI indicator indicates a strong resistance and is now below 50, where bears are currently in-charge. The KLCI is now in a down trend reversal and is expected to test its immediate support level at 1,215 points, while stronger support level is at 1,150 points. Resistance is lowered to 1,300 points from 1,340 points because of stronger pressure downwards.


Article by Benny Lee

Monday, May 12, 2008


Today, computers and trading software make it so easy to access information from almost anywhere. Never before have so many people had useful tools readily available to them at their fingertips.
I believe this situation presents a problem for a lot of people, in that they try to overcomplicate matters that don’t need overcomplicating. With the features of some charting software, people will try and write formulas to identify the most bizarre and complex things.

I once had a client present his entry signal to me which I estimated took 10-15 minutes to do so. After two minutes of listening, I am already starting to shake my head inside. It included things like, “well, I wait for that indicator to cross that one and then … “ and “now if that indicator is still below 50 for the next 3 days and that indicator doesn’t cross above that one
… “ and how about “must cross over that blue line at an angle of more than 45 degrees … “ and the explanation goes on and on.

I believe that people have a tendency to complicate matters where in most instances a simple solution will be more than adequate - our entry signal when trading is no exception. As mentioned, some examples I have heard involve numerous indicators crossing each other at various angles and changing colours and all sorts of trivial conditions. In these cases, if I was to take their notes away from them, they wouldn’t be able repeat 20% of their entry signal. This is a concern.

Generally, two big problems that traders face are not having a trading plan and if they do have one, not following it. There is no need to complicate things beyond simple comprehension. One thing I have learned about trading plans, is that the easier it is to understand, the more likely you are to follow it.

People have been trading various types of markets for hundreds of years – and making money doing it. It wasn’t too long ago that a computer was not common place in every home as we find it today.

Computers were once restricted to people wearing white lab coats and they filled up entire rooms accompanied by the deafening noise of cooling fans whirring away. In these days, hand drawn charts with few if any technical indicators were used. Yet, despite this, people still made money trading. They followed the rules that have stood the test of time.

So, if people at the beginning of the 20th century were profiting from speculation in a market, yet they didn’t have access to a PC, charting software, various technical indicators and customized lines covering a chart, clearly having these tools is not an absolute must, nor even necessary. No doubt, they are useful tools today and many people enjoy the benefits of them but they are not the most important ingredient to your success – they are not even close.

I believe a lot of people think that the more time they can spend developing and refining their entry signal, the better off they will be – sometimes to the detriment of more important areas.

How do we fix this? The important point to be made here is to focus. Focus on the right things and the things in your trading plan that are important. As an example, several years ago, a colleague and I were running a full day course where we both presented on different topics throughout the day and the attendees could decide which presentations they attended. As the day started, the group split themselves quite evenly to listen to the two separate presentations. This even split continued throughout the morning as people moved between the two seminar rooms between breaks and maintained a fairly even split.

After lunch, the first two presentations were on industry sector analysis and money management. The group split themselves up again however this time, 80% of the people went into the seminar room for the presentation on industry sector analysis and the remaining 20% entered my seminar room for my presentation on money management. Before I started my presentation, I said to my attendees that this is another reason why most traders fail. 80% of the group thought that industry sector analysis was more important than money management and therefore decided to listen to that presentation. There are not too many more important things than money management and industry sector analysis, which was designed to help them with their entries, is certainly not one of them.

The lesson here is to focus on the right things. Don’t focus too much on your entry signal, as most people do. Keep it simple and move onto the more important areas like position sizing, setting exits and preparing your mind for successful, disciplined trading.
Article by Stuart McPhee

Saturday, May 10, 2008

The Asia Trader and Investor Convention (ATIC) has been the market place for information and services in the financial industry since 2006. It is the BIGGEST localized event that specifically cater for investors and traders in the financial markets. Read more about the events here. Held once a year in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, India and Japan, the conventions were major success because of the ability of the organizers to highlight current and relevant issues and bringing in the right speakers for the event.


City Hall, HCMC


The next 2-days Asia Trader and Investor Convention event is going to be held in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam on 31st May to 1st June, 2008.

Featuring market gurus like Daryl Guppy, Ray Barros, Brent Penfold, Kathy Lien, Stuart McPhee, Don Schellenberg, Li XinJing, Benny Lee and many others will be there to share their ideas, strategies and analysis.

Make sure you can make it to this grand event and be prepared to equip yourself with the necessary information and skills to succeed in the financial markets.

Visit www.theatic.net for more information

Wednesday, May 7, 2008

There are many things I wish I knew when I first started trading, but what advice I give to new traders depends on the recipient. If I can be certain that the recipient of the advice is willing to accept what you say and run with it, I would tell them about the importance of the right mindset (or psychology) for trading, and talk about how to prepare themselves for the mental rigours of trading.

The problem here is that if you tell someone who is starting to trade that their mindset or psychology is going to be the most important part of their success (and not their entry signal for example), most would just laugh at you and think you are joking.

Here is the irony of trading – the primary reason why people trade is to make money. Yet, it is the money that often causes people to make all the mistakes and not make money, because they focus too much on it.

For example, the most important thing you can when trading is to cut your losses, yet deep down people don’t want to because it appears to go against the primary reason why you are trading – to make money. By cutting the loss, you are denying yourself the opportunity to make back the money in that trade.

The other thing with money is that I don’t think there are many other things in life that affect our emotions as much as money does. So when we are trading and our own money is on the line, it is difficult to not get too emotional with our decisions yet emotions often lead us to making poor trading decisions.

Trading is decision making. Often you are faced with several alternatives of what you can decide to do, however generally it boils down to two options. You either decide with what you feel like doing or you decide with what you know has to be done to trade well. Most people select the former whereas those who are successful with their trading, ignore what they feel like doing and do what has to be done to ensure overall long term success. This is a key separator between successful traders and the rest.

Aside from the psychology response, I would tell a beginner that trading isn’t as easy as you probably think it is. Many people think that trading is easy money, as I did early on – it is probably the hardest easy money there is.

If a new trader can appreciate right from the start that trading isn’t as easy as they think it is, they will most likely approach it with a more committed effort and be prepared for the challenges that trading presents.

With the benefit of experience, there are so many things I wish I knew when I first started that I now just accept and take as ‘the way it is’. I could have also answered with:

* be humble – you are not going to get every trade right

* be committed – trading is not easy and any half hearted attempts will not get you anywhere

* educate yourself – there is so much to learn and whilst you can learn from actually trading, you can save yourself a lot of money and stress by learning from someone else who has come before you

* take it slowly/be patient – trading success is not going to happen overnight. For most people, this is a life long endeavour so does it really matter if it takes you a few years to start trading profitably

* keep it simple – people have a tendency to overcomplicate matters and develop intricate and complex solutions to problems. When we accept that trading is not easy, we think only a complex solution (trading plan) will work. In trading, simple does work. It is also makes it much easier for us to follow the plan when it is simple.

* be realistic – having high expectations of yourself is a good thing however, unrealistic expectations is not. Many traders when presented with the wonderful opportunities that the market offers can be very easily led to setting unrealistic goals for their trading. This can be devastating. It is vital to set yourself goals with your trading but it is equally vital to ensure that those goals are measurable, and realistic.

* focus on the right things - don’t focus too much on your entry signal, as most people do. Keep it simple and then move onto the more important areas like position sizing, setting exits and preparing your mind for successful, disciplined trading.

* whatever you do, protect your capital – it goes without saying that if you have no money left, you can’t make money. This is an important issue because any new trader is not focused on protecting their money, they are focused solely on making money!
Article by Stuart McPhee

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

COSCO Corporation (Singapore) Limited is an investment holding company. The Group owns and operates ships. Its shipping-related businesses provide supporting services to the COSCO group, such as shipping agency services, ship repairs and container depots. The Group owns and develops property and engages in general trading.

Stocks that are property-related have taken a bashing since October last year and this includes Coscocorp, which one of its businesses is in property. The share price fell from a high of around SGD$8.00 in October last year to a low of around SGD$2.80 in March this year. That translates to a staggering 65% fall from the high. The price closed at SGD$3.37 on 2nd of May 2008.

Technically, the price may have bottomed out at this level because it formed a double bottom pattern on the chart. The pattern also formed a resistance level at SGD$3.92, which is also the confirmation level of the double bottom pattern. Therefore, the down trend is expected to change if price breaks above this resistance level.

The momentum indicators like the RSI and MACD indicate that there is a high possibility that the price can go higher. These indicators indicate strong momentum in the current short term up trend. If the price is able to break this resistance and confirms the double bottom pattern, the projected price is at SGD$4.94.

As long as the price is able to stay above the support level of SGD$2.80, accumulation whenever there is a dip in price is considered low risk. The short term target should be at SGD$3.90 while longer term target is at SGD$4.94. Both are projected targets based on technical analysis.
Daily Coscocorp chart as at 2 May 2008, using NextVIEW Advisor

Article by Benny Lee

Monday, May 5, 2008

FerroChina Limited is an independent flat steel value-added processor in China. Its subsidiaries are engaged in the production and sale of galvanized steel coils and other related products; production and sale slab billet and other related products, and investment holding.

The share price of Ferrochina suffered a down trend since October last year where the price was hovering around SGD$2.70. The down trend seemed to have stopped when the price found a based at around SGD$1.00 this year, a 63% fall from the price just about 3 months ago. It formed a double bottom pattern on the chart and the double bottom is an up trend reversal pattern. The share price last traded at SGD$1.56, on 2 May 2008.

The underlying trend is still down but the short term trend is up and strong. This may be the crucial factor that may push the price higher and change the underlying trend. The up trend is facing a resistance at SGD$1.66, which is the confirmation of the double bottom chart formation. Once the price breaks the resistance and confirms the double bottom, then we may see a change in the underlying trend.

Based on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator, there is a high chance that for the price to go higher than the resistance level. An expansion of the Bollinger Bands recently also shows that there is a strong price momentum upwards. If the double bottom is confirmed, it has an optimistic price target of SGD$2.20.

The price may not be a low risk entry level at the moment because it is at the resistance zone of the current short term up trend. A lower risk entry level is at the support zone on the up trend, which is currently at SGD $1.42. Therefore, it’s better to wait for price to dip to the support zone. There are 2 technical price targets; the short term target being the resistance level of the double bottom formation at SGD$1.66 and a longer term price objective of SGD2.20.


Daily Ferrochina chart as at 2 May 2008 using NextView Advisor

Article By Benny Lee
Sentiments have improved since the Bear Sterns episode and the intervention of the central bank and this sent the DJI to break above the resistance level at 12,800 points a few weeks ago and stay above it. The DJI closed at 13,057.80 points on the 2nd of May. It is now facing a maximum resistance level that defines the underlying down trend at 13,200 points and the DJI is out of the down trend if it breaks and stays above this level.


The momentum of the current short term up trend is strong and therefore the DJI is likely going to test the 13,200 points resistance level. Furthermore, the confirmed inverted head and shoulder pattern formed on the DJI chart since earlier this year has a price target of 13,600 points. Support level is now at the previous resistance level, which is 12,800 points. By Benny Lee
The FTSTI ended slight on a bullish mode last week. Technically, it was expected to test the 3,300 points resistance level but manages to reach a high of 3236.10, which was the close on the 2nd of May. Although we are currently seeing an upward rally on the FTSTI in the short term, the underlying trend is still down and there is only a change of it reversing its trend if it breaks the resistance level.

However, the momentum of the up trend, which was strong in the past few weeks have started to show a sign of weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is showing a bearish divergence on the daily chart. The same indication is happening on the MACD indicator. Therefore, we need to be cautious as the FTSTI may now be in a resistance zone with 3,300 points as the resistance level and a downward correction is expected to the next support level. The immediate support level is at 3,100 points. By Benny Lee

The KLCI was in a slight bullish mode last month but still remains in the sideway range of between 1,150 and 1,300 points. The KLCI closed at 1271.48 points on the 2nd of May after testing the resistance level with a high of 1,305.09 points last month. The KLCI actually pulled-back from the resistance level to the support level of the short term up trend on Friday.

The short term trend is up, but the underlying trend is still down and for the KLCI to change its underlying trend, it has to break and stay above the 1,300 points resistance level. The momentum is still currently holding up, with the RSI indicator showing a bullish convergence on the daily chart. However, the resistance may be strong as there are no catalysts in the local scene to boost the market further. Therefore, the KLCI is expected to continue to be range bound between the support and resistance levels of 1,150 and 1,300 points respectively. If the KLCI breaks and stay above the resistance level, the next resistance level is at 1,340 points. By Benny Lee