Friday, October 31, 2008

Stock markets reaction were mixed around the region as uncertainty continue to cloud investors minds. Many are waiting for fresh leads to enter the equity markets but worried about the worldwide recession that is in the process now. Below are how the equity markets fared:


World Indices Quotes snapshot from NextVIEW Advisor

The fear of recession has also lean price of commodities to continue to decline. Light Crude oil December futures is currently traded at US$63.44. Below are prices of commodities:


Commodities Price Quotes snapshot from NextVIEW Advisor

All price quotes are as at 7.25 p.m. (+8:00 GMT)

N.I.N.E.
Principle #1: Trading is a performance activity
This is the core idea behind my most recent book. Like the playing of a concert instrument or the playing of a sport, trading entails the application of knowledge and skills to real time performances. Success at trading, as with other performances, depends upon a developmental process in which intensive, structured practice and experience over an extended time yield competence and expertise. Many trading problems are attributable to attempts to succeed at trading prior to undergoing this learning process. My research suggests that professional traders account for well over three-quarters of all share and futures contract volume. It is impossible to sustain success against these professionals without honing one's performance--and by making sure that you don't lose your capital in the learning process. Confidence in one's trading comes from the mastery conferred by one's learning and development, not from psychological exercises or insights.

Principle #2: Success in trading is a function of talents and skills Trading, in this sense, is no different from chess, Olympic events, or acting. Inborn abilities (talents) and developed competencies (skills) determine one's level of success. From rock bands to ballet dancers and golfers, only a small percentage of participants in any performance activity are good enough to sustain a living from their performances. The key to success is finding a seamless fit between one's talents/skills and the specific opportunities available in a performance field. For traders, this means finding a superior fit between your abilities and the specific markets and strategies you will be trading. Many performance problems are the result of a suboptimal fit between what the trader is good at and how the trader is trading.

Principle #3: The core skill of trading is pattern recognition
Whether the trader is visually inspecting charts or analyzing signals statistically, pattern recognition lies at the heart of trading. The trader is trying to identify shifts in demand and supply in real time and is responding to patterns that are indicative of such shifts. Most of the different approaches to trading--technical and fundamental analysis, cycles, econometrics, quantitative historical analysis, Market Profile--are simply methods for conceptualizing patterns at different time frames. Traders will benefit most from those methods that fit well with their cognitive styles and strengths. A person adept at visual processing, with superior visual memory, might benefit from the use of charts in framing patterns. Someone who is highly analytical might benefit from statistical studies and mechanical signals.

Principle #4: Much pattern recognition is based on implicit learning
Implicit learning occurs when people are repeatedly exposed to complex patterns and eventually internalize those, even though they cannot verbalize the rules underlying those patterns. This is how children learn language and grammar, and it is how we learn to navigate our way through complex social interactions. Implicit learning manifests itself as a "feel" for a performance activity and facilitates a rapidity of pattern recognition that would not be possible through ordinary analysis. Even system developers, who rely upon explicit signals for trading, report that their frequent exposure to data gives them a feel for which variables will be promising and which will not during their testing. Research tells us that implicit learning only occurs after we have undergone thousands of learning trials. This is why trading competence--like competence at other performance activities such as piloting a fighter jet and chess--requires considerable practice and exposure to realistic scenarios. Without such immersive exposure, traders never truly internalize the patterns in their markets and time frames.

Principle #5: Emotional, cognitive, and physical factors disrupt access to patterns we have acquired implicitly
Once a performer has developed skills and moved along the path toward competence and expertise, psychology becomes important in sustaining consistency of performance. Many performance disruptions are caused when shifts in our cognitive, emotional, and/or physical states obscure the felt tendencies and intuitions that lie at the heart of implicit learning. This most commonly occurs as a result of performance anxiety--our fears about the outcome of our performance interfere with the access to the knowledge and skills needed to facilitate that performance. Such performance disruptions also commonly occur when traders trade positions that are too large for their accounts and/or do not maintain sound risk management with their positions. The large P/L swings cause shifts in emotional states that interfere with the (implicit) processing of market data. Cognitive, behavioral, and biofeedback methods can be very useful in teaching traders skills for maintaining the "Yoda state" of calm concentration needed to access implicit knowledge.

***
Brett N. Steenbarger, Ph.D. is Associate Clinical Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at SUNY Upstate Medical University in Syracuse, NY and author of The Psychology of Trading (Wiley, 2003). As Director of Trader Development for Kingstree Trading, LLC in Chicago, he has mentored numerous professional traders and coordinated a training program for traders. An active trader of the stock indexes, Brett utilizes statistically-based pattern recognition for intraday trading. Brett does not offer commercial services to traders, but maintains an archive of articles and a trading blog at www.brettsteenbarger.com.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

The general rule in trading and technical analysis is to keep it simple. The more complicated a chart, the greater the room for error and excuses for not taking appropriate action. The usual chart display for COMEX Gold shows exceptional volatility and a web of four trend lines.

The central trend line starts form the low in July 2005. Gold price activity is defined by a parallel upper and lower trend line. Then we can add a new trend line to take into account the recent lows. Add a support line near $780 and another long term support line near $690 and it becomes a confusing chart display.

The candlestick chart contains two essential pieces of information for analysis. The first is the increase in volatility. Weekly price ranges have increased significantly and this signals indecision. The second is the broadening fan pattern. This is a long term signal of trend reversal. The bullish application of this pattern is seen in the Shanghai Index. The gold chart shows the bearish application of the pattern.



Shifting to indicator analysis using a GMMA display develops a clearer picture of the trend behaviour. The red group of moving averages gives the implied activity of investors. This group has turned down and begun to develop compression . This suggests long term investors are becoming sellers. They use the rise in price as an opportunity to lock in profits.

The group of blue averages indicates the behaviour of traders. There are three important features. First, this group has dropped below the long term GMMA for the first time since December 2003. This signals a very significant change in relationships from bullish to substantial bearish pressure.

Second, the rally rebounds driven by traders have become weaker. This is verified on the GMMA where a downtrend line is drawn from the March to the October peaks on the short term GMMA.

Third, the most recent rally rebound was unable to lift above the upper edge of the long term GMMA. These are all classic end of trend signals. They are discussed in more detail in my book Trend Trading.

Traders who apply RSI divergence analysis will note the Divergence signal starting November 2007 and confirmed in March 2008. Current RSI activity acts as a confirmation signal of developing bearish strength.

The trend analysis suggests there is a lower probability the long term gold trend will continue upwards. The pattern of volatility in price indicates traders can anticipate some fast rallies towards resistance near $920 and rapid retreats towards support near $780. However, these price moves develop within the environment of stronger downward pressure. The key confirmation of bearish pressure is two consecutive weekly closes below support at $780. This developed this week with a weekly close below $780. This sets a longer term support target near $690.

Bullish success is indicated with two consecutive weekly closes above resistance near $920.

To read more articles and commentaries from Daryl Guppy, click HERE

***

Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Best-Selling Author Mr. Daryl Guppy. For more articles and commentaries from Daryl Guppy, click HERE.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Equity markets rebounded strongly yesterday after suffering from massive sell downs for the past few weeks. However, most markets lost its bullish rebound yesterday except for Japan, which continues to climb another 7.7% higher today, with strenghtening Japanese Yen.

The momentum is still strong in Europe. UK's FTSE and France's CAC40 Index climbed 5.4% and 6.7% respectively at current time. Investors are a little bullish as they are expecting US central bank to further cut key interest rates. Some analysts, however, warned investors that the economic crisis were far deeper and expect markets to continue to be volatile even if there is a cut in key interest rates. Many expects the cut to be half a point, pushing the federal funds rate down to 1 percent. Read more from Yahoo Finance here.

Below are the performances of equity markets, as at 7:50 p.m. (+8:00 GMT):


World Indices Quotes snapshot from NextVIEW Advisor

N.I.N.E.

On Tuesday morning, markets in the Asian region were down. However, it rebounded after investors went into bargain hunting and selling pressure started to ease. Only the Malaysian market was down with 26.67 points at 832.44 after hitting an intraday low of 801.27 points. Hong Kong Hang Seng index which was very volatile in the past few days went up 14% at 12,596.29 points

Markets in Asia went down sharply in the past few weeks as fear of recession and expecting financial crisis to hit the Asian region. Japan's Nikkei closed its lowest since 26 years this week and many markets went below the 5 years low.

Yesterday, the US market rebounded sharply with the Dow Jones Industrial average surging 889.35 points or 10.9% to close above the 9,000 points level at 9,065.12. Investors in wall street were expecting key interest rates cut this week and at the same time fear that the rally may not hold. In Europe, things weren't that positive here as London's FTSE and France CAC40 Index managed to climb only 1.9% and 1.5% respectively.

"We expect the rebound, and if there is a rally, it would not be able to hold because of this short term expectations. in the longer term it is still gloomy and therefore those who got into the markets probably have very short term interests" say Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist of NextVIEW. However, with the strong Dow rally, expect markets in the Asian region to rebound.

N.I.N.E

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Stock markets around the world took a plunge yesterday when Malaysia and Singapore were celebrating the Hindu festival of lights or Deepavali. The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index fell more than 50 points in the first half hour of trading. At current time, the benchmark index stands at 806 points, 52 points or 6.1% lower than previous Friday's close. The Singapore Straits Times Index closed 7.8% lower to 1474.51 points.

N.I.N.E.
It was a day of havoc in financial markets all around the world as investors see no hope in economic recovery. Investors especially in Asia region are expecting the financial crisis like the one happened in the US to happen in this region as well. Last Friday markets in the Asian region fell amid a rebound in the US.

Yesterday, Japan's Nikkei225 fell to a 26 year low after shedding about 500 points or 6.4% to close at 7,162.90. The recession fears also pushed the Yen higher, near 20. Japan's prime minister urged officials to prevent the crisis from going deeper and ease the market volatility. The Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index made its biggest daily decline since 1991. The index fell 1,600 points or 12.7% to close at 11,015.84 points, its lowest close for more than 4 years. Thailand's SET Index close to its lowest close of more than 5 years when it plunged 45 points or 10.5% to close at 387.43 points.

China's benchmark, the Shanghai Composite Index, lost 6.3 percent, or 116 points, to 1,723. Only South Korea managed to buck the down trend as it ended 0.8 percent higher at 946.45. The South Korean central bank reduced its key interest rate Monday by 0.75 percent, its biggest cut ever to prevent the economy falling into recession. Australia's All Ordinaries suffered lightly with a slight decline. The index fell about 60 points or 1.6% to close at 3,768.30. Markets in Malaysia and Singapore are closed for Hindu's Deepavali celebration.

In the west, European markets reaction were mixed. The British FTSE 100 fell 30.77 points, or 0.8 percent to close at 3852.59, while France's CAC 40 decline 4.0 percent to 3067.35.

Light Sweet Crude Oil for December delivery fell 93 cents to settle $63.22 a barrel in trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil prices have plunged more than 57 percent from a record $147.27 in mid-July. Demand is expected to decline because of recession fears.

N.I.N.E.

Friday, October 24, 2008

The US market rebounded yesterday in the last hour, which many seem to see it as a support to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The decline is lead by Korean market. The benchmark KOSPI fell more than 10%, lowest since June 2005 and was already down 7% yesterday. The Korean market fell about 40% in the past one month. Japan's Nikkei fell more than 7%. Asian investors seem to worry that the financial crisis in the west is affecting corporate earnings and expect the financial industry to face the same crisis as in the US.

Below are the indices updates in the Asian region as at 1:20pm (+8:00 GMT):


World Indices Quotes snapshot from NextVIEW Advisor

N.I.N.E.


The US market has been very volatile in the past few weeks because of the financial saga involving collapse of major financial institutions and the governments desperate move to use public funds to bailout ailing companies and save the financial industry from disaster. The government intervention has caused to the market to ease a little and go into a correction.

The US Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) volatility has started to ease. The daily Average True Range (ATR) has eased from 750 points last week to 600 points this week. The ATR of 750 was the highest ever for the DJI. Even at 600 points it is considered high.

Today, the DJI closed 170 points higher after a weak start. The DJI went to a low of 8243.55 points. Support came in about one and a half hours before the market closes at the DJI rose more than 400 points to close at 8691.25 points. The US market have been in this kind of trading volatility in the past few weeks.


Daily DJI chart as at 23 October 2008 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart to view enlarged chart.

The correction in the DJI has formed a short term triangle pattern on the chart. A triangle pattern is a trend continuation pattern. The down trend is expected to continue once the support is broken (See chart below). The DJI did break below the support level today but managed to climb back above the support level, causing it form a pivotal support level at 8243. The DJI is expected to decline if it breaks below this pivotal support with a price objective of 6,400 points.

However, if the DJI is able to go above the triangle resistance, which is at 9,200 points then we may expect the DJI to consolidate further. There is a low chance of DJI forming a rally upwards because of the strong down trend and bearish market sentiments.

Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Chief Market Strategist of Nextview, Mr. Benny Lee. For more articles and commentaries from Benny, click HERE.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

The US Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 5.7% yesterday after poor performances in stock markets worlwide. It was another volatile session in the US market. The S&P500 index fell 6.1% to close at 896.78 points. The decline has caused markets in Asian region today to take another beating. Thailand Stock Exchange closed for public holiday. Below are the performance of major indices today as at 1:05 p.m (+8:00 GMT)


World Indices Quotes snapshot from NextVIEW Advisor


The world has prepared for a global recession. price of commodities have also fallen sharply.
US dollar strenghtens. Price of crude oil falls below US$70 per barrel and so do price of other commodities. Price of Crude Palm Oil fell to 2 years low. Below are the prices of major commodities as at 1:05 p.m (+8:00 GMT):


Major Commodities prices snapshot from NextVIEW Advisor

***
N.I.N.E.
The strength of the China market continues. Starting from September 29 the American DOW index lost 23%. During the same time the Shanghai Composite Index lost 16%. This difference is very important. It shows much greater strength in the China market and this strength is continuing. The market retreat is different from the market fall in America. The American market is falling very rapidly and moving quickly below historical support levels. The America market shows no evidence of developing any trend reversal behaviour.

The China market has already developed patterns of behaviour which are often related to a change in the direction of the trend. The first behaviour feature is the support band between 1750 and 2000. The second behaviour feature is the long term fan pattern development. The third important behaviour feature is the resistance band between 2600 and 3000.

When a bear market falls it tests the support levels at the lower edge of trading bands. There is a very strong support level at 1750. This is the lower edge of the trading band. This acted as a resistance level in 2004 and again in 2006. The upper level of this support band is near 2000.
This support level may develop into a consolidation level in preparation for a trend rebound.

This consolidation band has been tested for the first time in September. It will be tested for a second time in the next several days. The first test was successful and the index had a rally above the value of fan trend line 3. The America market has not experienced a successful test of a support consolidation level.

Consolidation is also related to the long term fan pattern. This pattern is best analysed using a weekly chart. The fan pattern shows the speed of the market fall is slowing. Fan trend line three also acts as a support level. The market moves to this level and then rebounds. The sloping fan trend line intersects the horizontal support lines. During the next one to three weeks the market will also find support from the horizontal support area between 1750 and 2000. This has the potential to develop into a rally rebound point.



A rally rebound from this level encounters resistance near fan trend line four. We use the value of the upper edge of the long term Guppy Multiple Moving Average to place the estimated position on fan trend line four. There is a high probability of several weeks of rally and retreat behaviour before there is a successful move above fan trend line four.

The best result in the next several weeks is to see good consolidation and support develop near the 1750 to 2000 level. This will develop a good foundation for a new trend break above the value of fan trend line four.

To read more articles and commentaries from Daryl Guppy, click HERE

***
Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Best-Selling Author Mr. Daryl Guppy. For more articles and commentaries from Daryl Guppy, click HERE.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

The Singapore market continue to be dominated by the bears as the benchmark Straits Times Index (STI) making new lows, levels which we have not seen since July 2004. The impending recession coupled with news of investors losing their hard-earned money in the stock and even bonds markets have caused investors to be extemely bearish.

Despite being heavily oversold and many analysts suggesting that the STI may have found bottom last week, the STI continues to slide further. Last month, in my previous analysis on the STI, I have suggested that the STI is heading towards 2,100 points. The STI was at 2777 points then. The STI did head towards 2,100 and was very volatile in that week, where the trading range in 3 days was close to 300 points.

The STI is now at 1,852.15. The short term 30-day average is at 2,268 points, making the STI 18% below the average, which is considered very oversold. Momentum indicators such as ADX, RSI and Momentum have started to increase, causing a bullish divergence on the chart. This means that the down trend momentum has started to weaken.


Daily STI chart as at 1:00pm (+8:00GMT) on 22 October 2008 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart to view enlarged chart.

The STI may have a little more room downwards before it finds support, which in my opinion based on a few patterns and technical analysis should be at 1,780 points. Immediate resistance is at the previous support level at 2,100 points.

Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Chief Market Strategist of Nextview, Mr. Benny Lee. For more articles and commentaries from Benny, click HERE.
The Malaysian stock market got a rude awakening this week when the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) went to a low of 888.28 points in the early session but went up later to close near high at 909.51 points. Currently the KLCI is at 911.25 points (12:30pm local, +8:00GMT).

In my previous article, I pointed out the support level for the KLCI between 850 to 900 points and this is still the support level. The Malaysian market is the only market that is able to hold at technical support levels. The support level still holds.

Immediate resistance is at 950 points while a stronger resistance level is at 1,000 points, which is also the short term 30-day moving average. The volatility for KLCI has eased a little. The Average Trru Range (ATR) level for the past 5 days is 20 points. It was 26 points last week.


Daily KLCI chart as at 12.30pm (+8:00GMT) on 22 October 2008 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart to view enlarged chart.

Expect the KLCI to stay in a trading range between these support and resistance levels. The momentum indicators like ADX, RSI and Momentum is still suggesting that the down trend is strong and therefore the KLCI should have a downward bias, therefore the support may be temporary.

Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Chief Market Strategist of Nextview, Mr. Benny Lee. For more articles and commentaries from Benny, click HERE.

Monday, October 20, 2008

Although I’ve been expecting gold to move higher, the mass of participants in the gold market have decided collectively to move sideways for the time being, and perhaps downwards for another test of the low at 736.

A break below S1 (on the chart) will target S2 and if that is broken, then 736.

Resistance, around 925, if broken, will target the declining trend line and then the July high of 988.50.

The immediate next move for gold is debatable, however bias is now to the down side – meaning S1 is more likely to be broken to the downside before R1 is penetrated to the upside.

TECHNICALS


Gold chart as at 16 October 2008 using NextVIEW Advisor

The strong down move from October 10th may have follow-through momentum, continuing the downward slide.
RSI – clearly in bearish territory, and sloping down.

R1 – resistance at 925.
S1- nearby support at 820.50
S2 – 777.
S3 – 736.

Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. Mr Don Schellenberg is Senior Market Strategist of the NextView Group. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.
At the present time there is a lower high and a higher low evident in the daily chart. This is at least a reasonable description of a trading range.

My bias remains to the downside, anticipating a strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar.

Since it’s neither prudent nor profitable to hold an opinion against the evidence of price data on the charts, a strong close above R1 (marked on the chart) would require me to adjust my view, at least for the short term.

TECHNICALS


USD/CNY chart as at 16 October 2008 using NextVIEW Advisor

MACD – moving sideways in bearish territory.
Stochastic – down
EMA60 – this exponential moving average has contained most of the recent upside price movement, and is still sloping down.

R1 – resistance at 6.8442
R2 – 6.87
S1 -Nearby support at 6.7737
S2 – (not shown) 6.7474-6.7141

Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. Mr Don Schellenberg is Senior Market Strategist of the NextView Group. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.
The market continues to be volatile. Large daily ranges are still common.

On October 10th this currency pair reached a low of 1.3255, the lowest since June of 2007. the low also coincided with two or more important Fibonacci ratios, which considering the jitteriness in the financial markets, was enough to trigger an explosive up move. That up move puttered out rather quickly over the next few days and the low at 1.3255 is being threatened again.

A breach of 1.3255 should trigger a move down at least to 1.3000 which is the 38% retracement level of the Euro bull market that began in October, 2000.

Between 1.3000 – 1.2800 there is a great deal of support. If the market reaches down that far, and that is now highly likely, we will very likely see an upward drive that will last from several days to several weeks.

If the 1.2800 level is penetrated downwards, the eight year Euro bull run may be over and much lower values for the Euro could be in the works.

TECHNICALS


EUR/USD chart as at 16 October 2008 using NextVIEW Advisor

The weekly MACD and Stochastic (not shown), are still firmly down.
On the daily chart, mid to short term Stochastics are down, along with the MACD. However there may be enough support around 1.3300 to 1.3255 to ward off a downside break out a little while longer.

R1 – nearby resistance at 1.3800.
R2 – 1.4867. Between R1 and R2 there is a weak resistance zone between 1.400-1.4500.
S1- immediate support at 1.3255.
S2 – an even stronger support area appears in the zone from 1.3000- 1.2800.

MACD – down
NextView RSI – down
Stochastic – unconfirmed down at time of writing.
EMA 21 – firmly down.

Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. Mr Don Schellenberg is Senior Market Strategist of the NextView Group. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.

Sunday, October 19, 2008

I have a backlog of emails and comments from the recent poll concerning integrating system and discretionary trading. Many thanks to readers for their interest. I'll look for further comments today and then will summarize them--and my reactions--in a post tomorrow.

As a gesture of appreciation, allow me to share a piece of my research in this and the next post. In the past, I have only shared this with specific prop traders I have worked with in a coaching vein. The idea of the research is to identify two (related) things that every short-term trader should know:

1) When are institutional participants active in the market? 2) When are we likely to have large price moves during morning trade?

Let's start with the basics. As a gross distinction, imagine that we have two kinds of traders in the marketplace. The first are market makers (locals) who provide liquidity. They are in the markets throughout the day, and they are in the markets every day. Having worked with prop traders who function as liquidity providers in the electronic futures markets, I can tell you that their participation in the market is relatively consistent from day to day. For simplicity's sake, I treat their involvement (volume) in the market as a constant.

The second group of traders are directional traders who enter the market when they perceive that we are trading away from what they deem as value. They may fade highs and lows, identifying value as somewhere between, or they may trade breakouts, placing value away from recent trading ranges. They generally enter the market on longer-term bases than the locals (scalpers). While directional traders include small individual traders, their volume is dominated by CTAs, hedge funds, mutual funds, and other large, institutional traders.

If we make the assumption that the participation of locals is relatively constant from day to day, then we can attribute surges or plunges in volume relative to average to the increased or decreased participation of large, institutional traders. When markets are trading with below average volume, they are dominated by liquidity providers. Because those traders generally work orders above and below the current market price, they are selling offers and buying bids. That tends to make them short when markets rise and long when markets fall. They profit, on average, when moves do not follow through and trend. This is why local-dominated markets (i.e., low volume markets) tend to trade in narrow, choppy ranges. There just aren't enough large, directional traders participating to move the market far from current levels of value.

Conversely, when volume is significantly above average, we have active participation of the large institutional traders. They are perceiving that value is away from where the market is currently trading, and they exert a directional pressure on the market as they lift offers or hit bids. When markets get very active, you'll often notice that the average quantity of ES contracts at each level in the order book (your depth of market display) often drops. This is because locals are pulling in their horns. They don't want to get run over by the large institutions, and they--on average--lack the firepower to hold the market to ranges where they would benefit from selling offers and buying bids. With locals pulling back, directionally biased institutions create short-term trends.

This, then, is why volume is so closely correlated with volatility. The presence of large institutional traders is what makes for trends. Knowing how volume compares to average tells you a great deal about *who* is in the market and *how* the market is likely to move. When volume is very low, there is little market movement. At those times, there may not be enough opportunity to justify the slippage and commissions of trading. In short, volume = volatility = opportunity. Knowing volume is knowing how much markets are likely to move, because you're tracking who is in the market.

Now for the details. You may want to print this out and keep it by your side when trading. That's what I do.

Going back to the past 105 trading sessions, the median morning trading volume (8:30 AM CT - 11:00 AM CT) in the ES contract is 442,369 contracts. The median trading range (high - low range) for morning trade is .47%. That is a little less than 7 ES points.

The correlation between morning volume and size of the morning trading range has been .73. That's quite high. If we divide our sample into quartiles based upon volume, the highest volume group of days (with a median 569,000 contracts) average a trading range of .71% (about 10 ES points). The next highest volume group of days (median of 485,000 contracts) averages a trading range of .51% (about 7 ES points). The third, next-to-lowest volume group (median of 407,000 contracts) averages a trading range of .38% (about 5.5 ES points). The lowest volume group (median of 280,000 contracts) averages a trading range of .35% (about 5 ES points). In other words, you get twice as much movement (range) in morning trading when you compare the highest volume days to the lowest volume ones.

Think: Can you see how this information helps you set profit targets for morning trading? Can you see why, yesterday, I took profits once the morning market had moved about 6 points from low to high?

Tracking volume *is* tracking the stock market's largest traders. When you see volume expand significantly and when you see that the volume is asymetrically distributed at the bid or offer, you know that large market participants with a directional bias are taking over the show. That is why, yesterday, I alerted readers to a pending breakout move. I'm not clairvoyant; far from it. But I could see that large traders were leaning one way and locals would not be able to fade that in the short run.

When there is low volume, there is relative consensus about market value; when there is high volume, there is uncertainty. Uncertainty is what moves markets and facilitates future trade. As we will see in my next post, the current period's volume and volatility is positively correlated with those in the next period. Knowing participation *now* informs us about the near-term future.

Brett N. Steenbarger, Ph.D. is Associate Clinical Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at SUNY Upstate Medical University in Syracuse, NY and author of The Psychology of Trading (Wiley, 2003). As Director of Trader Development for Kingstree Trading, LLC in Chicago, he has mentored numerous professional traders and coordinated a training program for traders. An active trader of the stock indexes, Brett utilizes statistically-based pattern recognition for intraday trading. Brett does not offer commercial services to traders, but maintains an archive of articles and a trading blog at www.brettsteenbarger.com.

Friday, October 17, 2008

Dow Closes Higher

The US market started off with a bearish momentum amid rising fears of recession and ended up in a strong bullish note especially in the last hour.

Sweet crude oil fell US$4.69 to close at US$69.85 a barrel on NYMEX, the lowest price since 23 August last year. Investors are hoping lower energy prices will leave more money for consumers to spend.

Although investors are still bearish about the outlook of the financial markets, traders who look for short term opportunities started to enter the markets when the selling pressure ends in the morning. These spurred the market up and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) shoots up to close 401.35 points higher than the previous day's close. The DJI ended at 8979.26 points, 4.7% higher.

The DJI went as low as 8,197.67 points and as high as 9013.27. There's a 816 points range or 10%. expect the market to continue its volatility as investors and traders speculating whether the equity market will be supported by the government help.


5-minute DJI chart for 16 October 2007, using NextVIEW Advisor

Meanwhile, investors are still seeking safety in their investments as treasury bills are still in demand. On Thursday, the three-month old Treasury bill yielded about 0.50%. It yielded 0.20% on wednesday.

Markets may remain volatile, but the fact is that the bears are still in control in the long run and until a strong consolidation phase takes place, the market is expected to be pulled down by the bears.

N.I.N.E.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

For the second time in one week, the benchmark Nikkei225 index fell the sharpest with 11.4% decline or 1,089.02 points. The Nikkei closes at 8,458.45. The Japan market was in turmoil for the past one week, the Nikkei suspended its trading last Friday.

The fall was a reaction towards the plunge in the US equity markets which saw the Dow fell 7.9% yesterday.

Below are the performances of the other equity markets' benchmark indices as at 6.20pm (+8.00GMT). London's FTSE Index and France's CAC40 Index is down 2.7% and 4.3% repsectively:


World Indices Quotes snapshot from NextVIEW Advisor

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Investors all around the world are pessimistic about the current economic situation despite optimism shown in governments. Central banks in Europe including the US have aggressively approved hundreds of billions of dollars to bail out ailing finance companies in hoping to ease the deteriorating financial and economical situation around the globe.

Those who still think that the economy would not go into recession is still in wonderland. Those who bought equity and properties last year wished that they should not have invested last year. We are currently only seeing the mortgage crisis affecting the financial markets but what we have not seen yet is the business, automobile and credit card loans which somehow will be a crisis if the economy goes into deep recession.

New economy data include drop of retail sales by 1.2%, higher than the 0.7% predicted by analysts, as reported in AP news. This made it clear that the consumers are more careful in their spending. Light, sweet crude oil fell $4.09 to settle at $74.54 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a 13 months low. Price of Crude Palm Oil fell RM107 or 5.8% to close at RM1,743 per metric ton, currently at a price level 2 years ago.

Goverments are trying to cut spendings on developments and concentrate on developments that are crucial only. In Malaysia, the government is looking to relook at stop some projects. This may cause even more concern for the economy. In Singapore, a planned US$24billion petrochemical investment has been delayed because they are still not able to close its project financing.

Yesterday, the US benchmark index, the Dow Indutrial Average shed 733 points or 7.9% to close at 8577.91 points, almost wiping out the two days gains. The lowest close last week was on Friday at 8,451.19. In the Asian region, reaction was mixed but generally lower. Markets in this part of the world is expected to fall sharply amid the fall in the US and European market.

Investors have passed a vote of no confidence and expect the financial markets to fall lower and remain volatile.

Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Chief Market Strategist of Nextview, Mr. Benny Lee. For more articles and commentaries from Benny, click HERE.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

After climbing for two days, stock markets have started to take a breather as short term traders lock in their profits. Markets have climbed at least 10% for the past 2 days. There is a mixed reaction in different markets today in the Asian region. Leading the losers is the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index which fell 834.58 points or 4.96%. Japan is the only market in this region to have gained. The Nikkei index rose 99.90 points or 1%.

Yesterday, the US Down Jones Industrial Average closed 76 points lower or 0.8% despite a strong early morning rally that sees the index rose to almost 9,800 points. The Dow settled at 9,310.99 points. Below are the stock market indices performances as at 5.20 pm Singapore time. (+8.00GMT)


World Indices Quotes snapshot from NextVIEW Advisor

Many believe that the financial aid given by central banks to ailing financial companies may not be able to fix the economy quickly. Fears of recession has already begun. Unemployment rate in the US increased from 4.5% last year to 6% as at August. Inflation currently is at 5.36%. Crude oil price fell below US$80 per barrel.


US Unemployment rate chart actual and forecast from www.forecasts.org



US Economic indicators table from www.forecasts.org

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The collapse of the American DOW Jones Index to below 11200 is not a surprise. The head and shoulder chart pattern forecast this result in 2008 January.

The DOW Jones Index has achieved the downside target created by the long term head and shoulder pattern. This target was located at 11200. In a bear market this is the minimum downside target. There was a small rebound from this target level. This target level was also at the same level as the long term uptrend line starting on 2006, September. This trend line has not shown strong support.

The head and shoulder pattern shows the market up trend has ended. The pattern does not tell us how the bear market down trend will end. The historical support and resistance levels show where the market may consolidate and develop a rebound.


Dow Jones Index weekly chart by Daryl Guppy using NextVIEW Advisor.

The previous resistance level in 2004 until 2006 was located near 10700. This previous resistance level may act as a support level for the DOW. In a bear market the previous resistance levels do not provide strong support. The historical support levels created during the market rise are more reliable. The historical support level is near 10,000.

From 2004 to 2006 the DOW traded in a sideways pattern. The top of the trading band was near 10700. The bottom of the trading band was near 10,000. There is now a higher probability that climax selling will cause the DOW to fall quickly towards 10,000. Support near 10700 is not strong.

Climax selling is important because it indicates the end of the downtrend. The climax selling is seen when price falls rapidly and there is very large selling volume. Then the market also recovers quickly, although buying volume is small. This situation does not develop a shaped recovery. This climax selling is a leading indicator that signals the development of a consolidation phase in the market. This phase may last for many months, or a year. The market trade\s in a sideways band.

There will be many individual American companies which will collapse in the next several months. Lehman Brothers fell more than 70% since 2008 February before declaring bankruptcy. The AIG chart has been falling for many months losing 80% of the price value. The recent bad news was also not a surprise to traders who use chart analysis. Many American stock charts show similar behaviour so we know there is more bad news developing.

The good feature of the DOW Jones index chart is the strong support between 10,000 and 10700. This is the area where consolidation will develop and the eventual development of a new uptrend.

To read more articles and commentaries from Daryl Guppy, click HERE

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Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Best-Selling Author Mr. Daryl Guppy. For more articles and commentaries from Daryl Guppy, click HERE.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Markets in Asia today follow-up on yesterday's rebound after a strong rebound on the US Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Japanese market heads the list with a 13.6% increase or 1,122.9 points, the biggest one day increase ever for the Japanese market. The huge jump was because the Japan stock market was closed yesterday when markets rebounded.

Investors are gaining a little confidence by bargain hunting on stocks that are being quashed last week, especially finance-related stocks. The central banks are trying very hard to save the collapse of the financial industry by using public funds to bailout ailing financial giants.

Below are the performance of world market indices as at 12.50 p.m. local Malaysian time (+8.00GMT):


Indices quotes from NextVIEW Advisor

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Markets rebounded sharply after a massive selldown last week, which is the worst week-ever in many stock markets. The heavily oversold markets have started to make a technical rebound amid UK government's 37 billion pounds bailout for 3 major banks. The US government's effort to sped the US$700 billion bailout plan has boost investor's confidence.

The US Dow Jones Indestrial Index, France's CAC Index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose more than 10% while other markets rose more than 5%.

However, the markets have to work much harder to come out of the down trend. Most markets had fallen for 6 consecutive months. "They are far below the underlying trend. I would wait to go "short" once a set up appears and indicates the rebound is over." says chief Market Strategist Benny Lee.

Below are the performances of major indices All are yesterday's close, except Korea's KOSPI and Australia's All Ordinaries which shows current level as at 8.15 a.m. :


Indices quotes from NextVIEW Advisor

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