Friday, August 28, 2009

Crude oil price seems to be struggling to stay strong above US$70 a barrel. Every time it goes above US$70, it will start to move into a sideway trading range and fall below US$70. Price of crude oil is still above US$70 currently on NYMEX. However, the price fell US$3.00 to US$71 in the past few days. The highest was US$75 on 25 August. However, the price is still in an up trend, defined by the increasing moving averages and intermediate up trend line (See S1 on the chart below).

In the short term, momentum indicators are suggesting a weak up trend. The RSI has been stagnant while price is rising in the past few weeks. The MACD indicator is crossing below its trigger line the second time in one month. This weak up trend momentum shows strong resistance. The technical resistance level is at US$77, based on a 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level from the long term bear trend. Price of oil is probably going to test US$77 but not so soon because of the strong resistance. Support level is at US$66 and the up trend shall continue as long as the price stays above this level.


Daily NYMEX Crude Oil chart as at 27 August 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor

****

Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Chief Market Strategist of Nextview, Mr. Benny Lee. For more articles and commentaries from Benny, click HERE.


The Malaysian equity market continues to be uncertain despite better than expected GDP contraction for the second quarter. However, the market continues to be supported well. The FBMKLCI closed at the high of the day at 1,176.90 points Thursday, edging up 13.47 points or 1.12% from the previous week. Trading range for the past 5 days was very tight between 1,162.41and 1,176.90 points. Average daily trading volume shrunk considerably to 720 million shares. The daily average for the past few weeks was about 1.1 billion shares, so there is a 30% decline in volume.

The 3.9% year-on-year contraction of the economy in the second quarter was an improvement from the y-o-y 6.2% decline in the first quarter. It was also better than economists’ estimates at 5%. On a sequential quarter basis, that is from the first quarter to the second quarter the economy grew by 4.8% non-seasonally adjusted and non-annualized. For the first six months of this year, the Malaysian economy shrank by 5.1%. However, the three consecutive contractions confirm that the Malaysia is in a recession.

The market has been in a correction for a month after a strong uptrend formed since March this year and this uptrend is currently well intact. The short to long term 30 to 60-day moving averages are still increasing strongly and the benchmark index is still in the uptrend channel. The FBMKLCI has been hovering just above the short term 30-day moving average the whole of last week. The 90-day moving average which provides long term support is currently at 1,091. The intermediate uptrend channel support level is at 1,155 points.

Momentum indicators continue to be neutral but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator has been increasing last week from 50 to 60, showing some improvement in the uptrend momentum in the short term. The other indicators, MACD and Momentum continue to show that the uptrend momentum is weak. The declining ADX indicator also shows that the uptrend is still weak but the expanding PDI and MDI indicators, like the RSI are showing short term improvement.

The 20-day Bollinger Bands gets even tighter now after the market traded in a very narrow range last week. A tighter band would normally result a bigger explosion in price. The last time the Bollinger bands become this narrow was in mid-July this year when the FBMKLCI exploded upwards. The short term volatility maintains the same as last week. The 3-day Average True Range (ATR) remains below 10 points which means that there is no strong movement last week that may cause price to move into a direction.

With the bulls still supporting the current trend and the thickening Ichimoku Cloud indicator showing no signs of a bearish reversal at least in the next one month, the chances of the equity market moving higher is brighter. However, a breakout of the immediate support or resistance level will be a better determining factor to the future direction. The index is expected to move deeper into a downward correction it the support level is broken and climb higher if the resistance is broken.

Immediate support level remains at 1,160 points and if this is broken with expanding Bollinger Bands it may test the next support level at 1,100 points. Immediate resistance level is at 1,200 points and if the FBMKLCI can go higher and stay above this level, the uptrend is expected to continue to the next resistance level at 1,300 points. Last week I mentioned that the breakout is going to be soon because of the narrow Bollinger Bands and this time, the breakout may happen this week.


Daily KLCI chart as at 27 August 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor

****

Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Chief Market Strategist of Nextview, Mr. Benny Lee. For more articles and commentaries from Benny, click HERE.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Malaysia aims to become a high income economy within the decade, lest she gets caught in the middle-income country trap. While the objective is noble, the policy makers should ensure that the population at large will not be burdened with the ills of a high-income economy.

Prime Minister Dato’ Sri Mohd Najib Tun Abdul Razak made this a key priority under his leadership, in order to make Malaysia a developed nation by 2020, a vision first mooted by the fourth Prime Minister, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

In his keynote address at the 2009 Invest Malaysia, Najib highlighted efforts to formulate a new economic model that will be based on innovation, creativity and high value. It involves shifting the country’s reliance from a manufacturing base dependent on semi-skilled and low-cost labour to one that centres on high technology and a modern services sector dependent on skilled and highly paid workers.

Certainly when salary scale in Malaysia is raised close to international levels, we will be able to overcome the brain drain issue including attracting Malaysians currently working overseas and contributing to the economic development of other countries.

The main obstacle in such an endeavour would be above-average inflation. Often whenever a salary scale structure is elevated, it is followed by inflationary pressure, like it or not. It did not matter if the upward tweaking was due to rising productivity or worse, adjustments arising from historical inflation.



One may recall in the early 1980s, the starting monthly pay of fresh graduates in the public sector was about RM800 to RM1,000. The price of a new 1.2 litre car then was only about RM10,000. Ten years later, the starting pay for fresh graduates was from RM1,200 to RM1,400 while a new 1.3 litre car would cost RM28,000. Today, fresh graduates get around RM2,200 to RM2,500 per month while a new 1.3 litre car is priced around RM36,000.

Of course, thanks to technological advancements, the cars are far better today, but does that mean we must start comparing them with current 1.0 litre cars or five-year-old 1.3 litre second-hand cars?

Let us now compare the price of a plate of fried rice – RM1.50 in the early 1980s, RM2.50 in the early 1990s and RM4.00 to RM5.00 currently. What about prices or rental rates for basic houses or apartments, or perhaps rental for a room?

Based on official figures on annual inflation from 1980 to 2008 that peaked to 9.7% in 1981 and dipped to the lowest level of 0.3% in 1985, one needs to have RM237 in 2008 to have the same purchasing power of a RM100 note in 1980 on the assumption that his spending pattern is equivalent to the composition of the CPI basket. In other words, a RM100 in 1980 is only equivalent to RM42.13 in 2008 in terms of purchasing power.

Chart 1: Inflation and its impact on the money value


Hence, despite the increase in starting salaries over the last 30 years, the purchasing power has indeed remained at the same levels. Nonetheless, what has happened in the right way is that more jobs and business opportunities were created and more people had the opportunity either to work or do their own businesses.

Two other important issues to consider while we move towards the high-income economy is its impact on the country’s tourism industry, which in turn will also affect its supporting industries, and the trade balance.

Without doubt, one of the attractions of external tourists is the better priced goods and services in Malaysia. A reasonable hotel rate in Singapore may cost SGD250 (or RM600) per night but one will be able to get an equivalent room at half price in Kuala Lumpur. A plate of “lontong” for breakfast in Singapore would cost SGD2.50 (RM6.00) but only RM2.50 in Kuala Lumpur. And the list goes on.

In becoming a high-income economy, these may no longer be the reasons for international tourist arrivals. Our goods and services could become as expensive as in other developed nations due to two major reasons – inflationary pressure that is greater than the already developed countries and strengthening of the local currency. If these factors are not handled, international tourists must be given different reasons to visit Malaysia.

Managing the overall balance may be another issue. From the trade balance perspective, imports of final goods and services for local consumption may increase as (i) they become cheaper in local currency terms and (ii) Malaysians are paid better and therefore can afford them. We must also address productivity growth to at least grow in tandem with the salary increases. Otherwise, our products and services may become less competitive in the global markets.

Secondly, more and more Malaysians could afford to travel overseas for their vacation. While this may affect local tourism, the main issue is the rising outflow of our currencies to finance the rising outflow of Malaysian tourists.

While the efforts to transform Malaysia into a high-income economy should be supported by all citizens at all levels, policy makers and key participants in the economy should ensure that our beloved country will not be subjected to the high-income country trap.

****

Article Contributed By Ameer Ali Mohamed. Ameer is Director, Financial Research of NextVIEW. He has a total of 20 years experience as a corporate journalist, investment analyst and fund manager, including as research head of two stockbroking firms and CEO/CIO of a funds management company.

Republished with permission. This article was published in the Just Say It column in Shares Investment (Malaysia edition) August 2009. You can get the latest copy of Shares Investment (Malaysia edition) at leading bookstores in Malaysia.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

The behaviour of the oil market has changed dramatically in the last few weeks. Oil has retested the upper level of the trading and consolidation band. The market is establishing a new resistance level and this changes the upside price targets. The NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Crude Oil weekly chart is the most effective way to observe the impact of these historical trading bands and the nature of the oil trend behaviour.

The lower level of the current trading band is near $58.00. This is an historical support level. The upper level of the current trading band is between $68.00 and $70.00. This is also an historical resistance level. The oil price moved above this level in 2009, June and reached a high near $72.00. This was a temporary breakout. The price fell and retested support near $58.00.



The recent price move to $72.00 shows bullish pressure is retesting the resistance area between $68.00 and $72.00. A retreat from near $72.00 will confirm a new resistance consolidation level between $68.00 and $72.00. The drop below $68.00 may test the lower edge of the long term GMMA. The new resistance level at $72.00 is very important because it effects the upside target calculations.

Currently the next historical resistance level is located near $78.00. The next higher historical resistance level is near $88.00. During 2007 to 2008 the oil trend moved between trading bands. Each trading band was about $10.00 wide. Using the history of support and resistance this gives a new upside target of $78.00 which is $10.00 above the historical resistance level at $68.00. The historical levels are shown in black lines.

The character of the oil market is changing as the new uptrend develops. This change will be confirmed when the new resistance level at $72.00 is also confirmed. In this new environment the price targets change.

If a new resistance level is confirmed near $72.00 then it increases the width of the trading band. The new trading band would use the historical support near $58.00 and the new resistance high level at $72.00. The height of the new band is now $14.00. The behaviour of the trend in oil uses the trading bands to set the next upside target.

A breakout above the new resistance level at $72.00 gives an upside target near $86.00. The next higher target would be at $100.00.

The nature of trend behaviour in the oil market does not change. The trend moves in trading bands. Price consolidates inside the trading band, and then a price breakout develops. The upsides target is calculated using the width of the trading band. The character of the trend behaviour has not changed but the position and width of the new trading bands has changed. This sets higher upside targets when the breakout trend continues.

If we use the historical trading bands it would require three trading band consolidation periods for the oil price to reach $100.00. If we use the new trading consolidation bands it requires only two trading band consolidation periods for the oil price to reach $100.00.

To read more articles and commentaries from Daryl Guppy, click HERE

***

Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Best-Selling Author Mr. Daryl Guppy. For more articles and commentaries from Daryl Guppy, click HERE.

Monday, August 24, 2009

The market made a slight downward correction last week in line with rest of the markets in the region. The FBMKLCI closed 22.76 points or 1.9% lower from the previous corresponding week to 1163.43 points. The trading range for the week was between 1,153.97 and 1,196.46 points. The market is still being supported well despite the correction. The KLCI tested the 1,160 support level and came back above it. It is still above the support line of the uptrend channel (See S1 and R1 on the chart below) that has been developed since March this year. Therefore the up-trend is still intact and because the market is near a support level, an opportunity may arise to accumulate.

In the region, most markets were also down. Singapore STI index fell 2% week-on-week to 2,559.57 points, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 2.5% to 20,328.86 points. Shanghai Composite Index fell sharply closing 7.3% lower at 2,911.58 points while the US Dow Jones Industrial Average fell only 0.5% to 9,350.05 points. Commodities prices started to move into a correction as well. Crude Palm Oil futures in Bursa Malaysia fell 8.5% to RM2,301 per metric ton and Rubber futures (RSS3) in TOCOM fell 6% to JPY$196.70 per kg. Crude Oil however increased 2.7% to USD$72.84 a barrel in NYMEX week-on-week.

The averages (30 to 90-day average) of the KLCI continue to increase showing that the uptrend is pretty much intact. The FBMKLCI is being supported by the short term trend and is currently right above the 30-day average. The longer term 90-day average support level is at 1,078 points. The KLCI faced some heavy resistance at 1,190 points as it hovers around this level for about a week two weeks ago before making a correction last week.

Momentum indicators that measure bulls and bears strength are mostly neutral now. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator declined to 55.7%, near the 50% equilibrium while the Momentum indicator has gone below 100 points, which is the mid-point that separates the bulls from the bears strength. The MACD indicator which started to decline in the previous week continues to decline. The ADX indicator has started to also show bearish momentum by declining early last week.

The FBMKLCI has gone below the mid-band of the 20-day Bollinger Bands but still above the bottom band. The contracting bands show that the market is still in a correction and as the bands gets into a tighter trading range, a breakout of the correction is expected to happen soon. Short term volatility however has increased marginally because of the sharp fall early last week. The 3-day Average True Range ATR) is at 10 points, higher than the previous week’s ATR reading of 8 points.

The market has been in a correction for the past three weeks. All the indicators have not shown any signs of which direction the market is heading to at this moment. Further development in the next one or two weeks is crucial to determine the next course of direction. I can’t have any direction bias now because the momentum indicators are neutral. A breakout in support or resistance levels and the volatility expansion will determine which direction where the market might be heading.

Immediate support level remains at 1,160 points and if the KLCI breaks below this level and stays below it, with the expansion of the Bollinger Bands, then we might expect the market to correct further downwards to the next support level at 1,100 points. Resistance level is at 1,200 points and if the FBMKLCI can go higher and stay above this level, buying opportunity exists because the trend is expected to continue upwards to the next resistance level at 1,300 points. With the very tight trading bands, the market is expected to come out of this correction in the next one or two weeks. Therefore monitor closely where the market is going to break out.


Daily KLCI chart as at 20 August 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor

****

Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Chief Market Strategist of Nextview, Mr. Benny Lee. For more articles and commentaries from Benny, click HERE.

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Click here for Part 1

W
e start the strategy with a basic understanding of the relationship between risk and reward as shown in the diagram. Blue chip stocks are those which have the capacity to return 10% to 20% in a single trade. These figures are moved up a little in a bull market, but in general these are the types of returns we aim for with a blue chip stock. Trades may last months or longer with these stocks. Note that it is the return from the trade that defines the category. It is not the quality of the stock, although it is fair to say that most blue chip stocks also have a large capital base.

  • The mid cap stocks are capable of returning 30% to 50% in a single trade. In a long term trend they may return much more, but our focus is on a single trade that may last weeks or months.
  • A speculative stock is capable of returning 50% to 100% in a single trade. Typically these trades will last days or weeks. Some last months, but this is unusual.



As we move from blue chip trades to speculative trades, the risk increases. Speculative trading opportunities generally carry greater risk than blue chip opportunities. This is partly a function of volatility, and partly a function of momentum. Fast movers can also drop quickly. Slow movers can drop steadily for months on end as people discovered with banks in 2008. . The speed of the collapse does not diminish the risk in the trade. The risk is diminished by the activity of the trader. The trader who does not act on a stop loss signal automatically increases the risk, and the size of the loss, in the trade. The primary difference between blue chip and speculative stocks in this sense is that most times the blue chip trader will have more time to make a decision.

The obvious and enticing way to grow our capital quickly is to trade the speculative stock opportunities. If we only do this, and pyramid the returns from each trade into the next trade then we can grow capital very rapidly. Unfortunately it does little to protect our capital. With each new trade our capital and profits are exposed to the same level of market risk as when we first started. This is the gambler’s approach and is a short cut to ruin unless your luck holds.
The resolution to this problem, as covered in Share Trading, is to use only a fraction of capital in the high risk trades. This strategy uses speculative profits to add to capital.

The process is shown in the diagram. Our starting capital - $6,000- is divided into a 1:2 ratio. Two thirds of the capital - $4,000- is allocated to a blue chip trade. This is not going to earn a great deal, but it should earn better than bank interest which is the other alternative use of our capital. There are two objectives. One third of the capital is allocated to a speculative trade. This means the position size is $2,000 and this is about the minimum size trade that is realistically possible. This is the size of the RFE* trade example. It is this minimum size, coupled with the 1:2 ratio that gives us the minimum size for starting capital - $6,000.

To primary objective is to protect our capital. This is achieved by allocating more to blue chip stocks than to speculative stocks.

The next objective is to grow capital quickly by taking greater risk in the market. This is achieved by using a smaller proportion of our capital. This small proportion grows slowly as our total trading capital – profits and original capital – increases.

The profits from each trade are added to our trading capital. The diagram shows a successful speculative trade. The profit from this trade is swept initially into our bank account.



This profit becomes part of the total trading capital available. As a new speculative trade is opened the profit from the original speculative trade is added to the capital used in the next speculative trade. This is an aggressive Egyptian pyramid approach designed to fast track capital growth.

Although this is potentially a very profitable strategy, it is also a strategy that carries a higher level of risk. This is managed firstly by using tightly defined stop loss points and entering trades as close to the stop loss point as possible. We discussed techniques for this in recent newsletters.
The second way this risk is managed is by stopping this pyramid approach once we reach $14,000. The objective is to quickly reach the $14,000 level. Once this level is achieved, the capital ratio changes to the 1:2:4 ratio. This puts 1/7 of capital in speculative stocks, 2/7 in small or mid cap stocks, and 4/7 into blue chips. Again, the shift to this new ratio is based on the minimum acceptable trading size of $2,000. Applying 1/7 of trading capital to a $14,000 account gives a position size of $2,000.

Once $14,000 has been reached the next objective is to reach $21,000. At this level the combined impact of the speculative and mid cap trades can add significantly to the growth of trading capital. Growing capital is like pushing a heavy load. At first progress is slow, but as momentum builds the speed increases and it appears to take less effort to obtain a better result. As capital grows, the leveraged impact of speculative and mid cap trades increase and capital grows quickly. The difficult part is getting from $6,000 to $21,000. Over the next few months we will show some of these difficulties in real time. The skills learnt in this process underpin long term trading success.



As noted the speculative trade in RFE was closed with a 19.33% profit. This added $391 to speculative capital. The next speculative trade will use $2,391. The blue chip component of the 6-21 portfolio is yet to be opened. A new speculative position will be added when opportunities arise. This is not a process of close one trade and jump into the next. It takes time and care to build from a low capital base. We will show these trades in the case study report as they develop through the Guppy Newsletter.

To read more articles and commentaries from Daryl Guppy, click HERE

***

Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Best-Selling Author Mr. Daryl Guppy. For more articles and commentaries from Daryl Guppy, click HERE.

Monday, August 17, 2009

A month ago, I have expected the price of FCPO in Bursa Malaysia to have a bullish bias and test the resistance level of RM2,300 per metric ton because that was the long term 90-day average. The price then was RM 2,020. After facing some resistance at RM 2,340, the price of FCPO continue to climb and went as high as RM2,515 one day before this article is written. The price of FCPO pulled back to close at RM2,441 on 14th August because of sharp overnight fall in the price of soyoil and FCPO in the Dalian Commodity Exchange. The correction has formed a bearish reversal chart pattern based on Japanese Candlesticks analysis. So, question is, is the price of FCPO going to correct further downwards?

Minister for Plantation Industries and Commodities Bernard Dompok said on Friday that August inventories for palm oil may remain unchanged from a month earlier at 1.3 million tons. Cargo surveyors Intertek Agri Services and SGS (M) Bhd are due to announce Malaysia palm oil export for 1-15 August in the next few days but traders are expecting shipments to increase 1% from the same period last month. Demand from China, which is Malaysian main palm oil importer remains unchanged despite worrying economy. Weather forecasters are seeing developing El-Nino weather patterns towards the end of this year.

The FCPO price uptrend may be able to be sustained because of the strong fundamentals. Technically, the price of FCPO is still in an uptrend. The price is above the short to long term 30, 60 and 90-day moving averages. Price is just slightly higher above the averages and volume has been slightly increasing in the past one month. The 90-day average is currently at RM2,380. While the 60-day average is at RM2,293. The rebound from the recent low of RM2,000 confirms the intermediate up trend line (S1 on the chart).

Momentum indicators are showing strength in the current rally. The Relative Strength index (RSI) Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD), Momentum and Average Directional Index (ADX) indicators are all making new highs. The strong momentum shows strong support and less resistance and therefore there is a high chance that price can climb higher. Therefore the pullback on Friday may be short-lived with a mild correction and the uptrend is expected to resume. So, this answers the question in the first paragraph.

The short term support level is at RM2,300 (the 60-day average) and this is where the price is likely going to be supported in the current pullback. If the price of FCPO can stay above this level, then expect price to continue to go higher and test the RM2,800 resistance level within this year. So there you go, based on technical analysis, I am currently bullish in the price of FCPO and RM2,800 can be tested again and this answers the title for this analysis.

There will be resistances along the way especially at RM2,600. However, if price falls below RM2,300, further sideways correction is expected as price should hover around the averages if there not much developments in the industry or when the market is uncertain.


Daily FCPO chart with RSI and volume indicators as at 14 August 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor

****

Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Chief Market Strategist of Nextview, Mr. Benny Lee. For more articles and commentaries from Benny, click HERE.

The Malaysian equity market is still able to hold near the resistance level. The bulls and bears are struggling to set the direction for the market. The market was expected to go into a downward correction but the bullish move in the US and regional markets prevented the market to fall. The bullish sentiment provides confidence to investors and traders to take higher risk to enter into the market. The FBMKLCI closed at 1,186.91 points Thursday, almost unchanged week-on-week with a narrow trading range between 1178.51 and 1,191.66 points.

Market was very bullish on Wednesday, after the DJI rose 1.3% on Wednesday with the Federal Reserve announcing that the US economy was leveling out and maintains the interest rate. Financial stocks lead the market. Investors in Asia were in a in a very bullish mood Thursday. Major indices in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Indonesia and India were up by at least 2%. Thailand’s SET Index rose 1.8%, while the Singapore Straits Times Index rose 1.7%. However, the FBMKLCI only rose half a percent.

The Malaysian economy is showing signs of improvement, thanks to its natural resources. Malaysia’s Industrial Production Index (IPI) fell 9.6% year-on-year in June and 10.9% in the second quarter of this year but was marginally up 0.2% month-on-month. The y-o-y 9.6% drop in June represented an improvement over the 11.3% drop in May and the 11.7% decline in April, and it is the smallest decline since November last year. Soft commodities which Malaysia is a major producer have a positive outlook. The futures price in Bursa Malaysia for crude palm oil is currently trading at RM2,515 per metric ton, up about RM500 or 25% in a month. Rubber (RSS3) futures price in TOCOM rose 37% to JPY213/kg on-month. Crude Oil maintains above US$70 a barrel.

The FBMKLI up trend is obviously strong and is still hovering near the resistance level. The short to long term moving averages are still increasing strongly and the benchmark index is above the averages at a comfortable level. The benchmark index continues to stay near the uptrend channel of S1 and R1. Trading volume remains firm at a daily average of 1.1 billion shares, the same as the previous week. The same price and volume level shows that the market is still uncertain despite the bullish rally in the region.

The bulls are still in control of the current market, but with a weaker strength. Momentum indicators have started to show weaknesses in the bull strength. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is declining slightly in the short term but is still at the strong bullish zone. The MACD has crossed below its 9-period moving average indicating a divergence in the short and long term uptrend. The Momentum indicator is slowly declining to the neutral zone. The ADX indicator is still slightly declining but the PDI and MDI lines have started to contract.

With the lack of a sense of direction, the market continues to be less volatile. The 20-day Bollinger Bands continues to tighten further last week. The bands started to contract two weeks ago. However, the KLCI is still in the bullish zone. The short term volatility has also declined. The 3-day Average True Range (ATR) indicator declines further to 8 points from 10 points in the previous week.

For the past two weeks, the Malaysian equity market was in a correction period. The weakening momentum, weaker volatility and stagnant market volume clearly shows a consolidating market. There are always opportunities in a correcting market. The long term indicators still show that the market can go higher. A breakout of the current FBMKLCI resistance level of 1,200 points is a sign that the market is going out of the correction and a rally to the next support level at 1,300 points is expected.


Daily FBMKLCI chart with volume as at 13 August 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor Professional

The correction favours the upside breakout as long as the index stays above the support level at 1,160 points. Failing to stay above this level would cause the index to move into a deeper and longer consolidation. The leading Ichimoku Cloud indicator still does not show any weaknesses in the current trend and no sign of major reversal in the next one month. All the indicators are showing that the market is being supported well.

****

Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Chief Market Strategist of Nextview, Mr. Benny Lee. For more articles and commentaries from Benny, click HERE.

Thursday, August 13, 2009

China's property markets rebound especially in Shanghai may benefit companies like Yanlord Land. Yanlord's 5 month revenue for year 2009 of $5.3 billion yuan is more than the $5 billion yuan registered for the whole of year 2008. Two months ago, the company said that it plans to raise SG$604 million through issue of new shares and convertible bonds to fund acquisition of new development sites, strategic investments and working capital needs.

Yanlord’s share price has increased four-fold from $0.70 in March this year to a high of $2.84 before falling sharply for three consecutive days to close at $2.43 at the end of the first week of August. Yanlord is one of the leading performers in SGX. The price is currently at the 50% retracement level of the bearish trend from October 2007 to October 2008. The high of $2.84 was a Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8%, which is considered as a resistance level.

The uptrend is still intact as the 30, 60 and 90-day moving averages are still increasing. However, the price has started to below the 30-day average. The uptrend is currently in a correction with support level at the 90-day average which is currently at $2.04. There is a strong pivotal support level at $2.15.

Although price of Yanlord is in an uptrend, the momentum indicators are showing signs of weakness in the current up trend. The RSI, MACD and ADX indicators which indicate the strength of a trend is declining from high to high and this means that the uptrend has become weak. With price being overbought at $2.84, the sharp correction to the current price is no surprise. Now that the momentum is weak, $2.84 may be the high for this year, unless the price is strongly supported. At this point of time, this counter may be difficult to get support because investors and traders may shift focus on other under-valued stocks.

The correction is expected to continue and if the price is able to be supported at $2.15, then the uptrend may still be valid but may continue to face strong resistances. A lot of profit can be made at current price even if the shares are bought at $2.00. Therefore, it is best to wait for the price to come around $2.15 and re-look at the indicators before considering buying this counter. Risk is high to buy at current price.


Daily Yanlord chart with volume as at 7 August 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor Professional


The 3-day Average true Range (ATR) indicator has increased to high of $0.16 and this was because of the three consecutive days of sharp fall. Therefore, a stop loss should not be placed higher than $0.16 from the entry price if a trader decides to trade and longer term position trading should be 1.5 times the ATR which is $0.24.

Resistance is obviously at $2.84 and if this can be broken, then we may see price rally to $3.50, but like I have mentioned earlier, the chances of this happening is this year itself is low.

****

Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Chief Market Strategist of Nextview, Mr. Benny Lee. For more articles and commentaries from Benny, click HERE.
China-based shipbuilder Yangzijiang has been able to deliver the ship vessels as scheduled this year. The company has successfully delivered 11 vessels year-to-date. Another 29 vessels are to be delivered until the end of this year and the company in confident it is able to fulfil the delivery. Total value of vessels delivered so far in 2009 stands at US$445.9 million and order book is currently at US$6.43 billion with delivery schedule stretching out to 2012.

The economic improvement in the region especially China has increased investors’ confidence in buying this company’s shares and the recent analyst’s price upgrades has also helped. In March this year, Yangzijiang’s share price was around $0.37 and its lowest ever price was $0.29 in October 2008. Today, the price is at its 15 months high at $0.975, 163% higher from the low in March. While the benchmark Straits Times Index has already retraced 50% from the October 2007 to October 2008 bear trend, Yangzijiang’s price has only retraced 30%. There is still room for price to go higher.

Moving averages (30, 60 and 90-day moving averages) are in convergence upwards which means that the underlying uptrend is strong. This is further supported by the momentum indicators. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Momentum indicators are making new highs showing that the bulls are in control. The Average Directional Index which is increasing shows no sign of weakening bullish momentum. Therefore, based on these indicators, there is a high chance of price going higher.

However, the price has been going up quite steeply and normally a steep upward movement can’t be sustained. The fall on Friday shows how sharp a downward correction can be. The uptrend is a parabola in nature, which can be defined in the parabolic arc line in the chart below. Normally, a steep correction downwards will take place if the parabolic arc is broken. But if it is able to rebound from the arc, we may see another strong rally upwards.


Daily Yangzijiang chart with volume as at 7 August 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor Professional

Price is expected to test the parabolic arc, which is currently at $0.94. When price comes to this level, a rebound may create a buy opportunity for short term traders. A rebound can be detected from indicators like bullish candlesticks reversal patterns. However, if price falls further, in can be a steep one so traders need to be very cautious. The 3-day Average True Range (ATR) currently reads $0.06 and therefore a suitable stop loss for a trader to consider is $0.06 from the buying price.

If the arc is broken, the price may find support at $0.87, the S1 up trend line as plotted in the chart. The upside target for Yangzijiang is $1.20 and this can be achieved as long as the price stays above the S1 up trend line.

****

Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Chief Market Strategist of Nextview, Mr. Benny Lee. For more articles and commentaries from Benny, click HERE.

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

I can still remember my first contact with a broker. The message was blunt. “If you haven’t got a minimum of $50,000 to start with then I am not interested.” The broker’s arrogant contempt struck a raw nerve because I felt I had as much right to make money in the market as anybody else. His comments spurred me on to understand the market, the money making opportunities, and the vital role that money management and risk control plays in trading success. In many ways, this broker bears responsibility for all the books that I have written because my objective is to cut through the arrogance of entrenched market money to show how these opportunities are available to everybody.

I started with $2,000 because that is all that I had available at the time. It was not money that I could not afford to lose. It represented a very significant part of my savings. Losing it would hurt a great deal and that immediately focused my attention on risk control. This was not a gamble. It was a well considered plan to make my capital work hard. $2,000 is not a good ‘grub stake’.

$6,000 is closer to the bare minimum required for trading because it gives the trader the ability to practice some risk diversification. Growing this capital to $21,000 is the first important step in market survival. Once trading capital reaches $21,000 it is much easier to spread the volatility risk across several open positions to protect and grow capital.

Some people continue to sneer and suggest that it is virtually impossible to grow capital from $6,000 to $21,000. This self defeating attitude is guaranteed to deliver trading failure, and failure in many other aspects of life. No one pretends trading the market is easy. It is jot. It requires more discipline than many people have. It requires a willingness to work, and work hard. This is no gamble, and there are no short cuts. This upsets many Australians who love the Tattslotto approach to life and the markets where lots of money comes for little work. When they discover making money from the market requires more work than buying a tattslotto ticket they give in – and they decide that no one else can make money from the market because it is rigged, manipulated or controlled by insiders and those in the know. Their self defeating attitudes become self fulfilling.

The market remains the most effective legal place to grow capital through the exercise of risk management techniques and personal effort. Over the next few months we will be running a simultaneous case study portfolio designed to show how capital can be grown from $6,000 to $21,000. We will be using only ordinary stocks – no derivatives of CFDs.

We start the case study with a sample completed trade in RFE*. Readers may remember that this stock was covered in the Chart Briefs section a few weeks ago. At the time we noted that one of the staff at Guppytraders held an open position in the stock. We use that trade as the starting point for the $6,000 to $21,000 case study. The trade was closed on Thursday. The chart shows the entry and exit points. The trend was identified with a Darvas box breakout. The trade was managed using a trend line. Trade entry was as price rebound from the trend line near the lower edge of the Darvas box.



Success rests upon the way we approach risk with this small starting capital. This is the most important factor. Because when we start, our focus is always on protecting capital. Usually it has taken some time to gather the capital, and we do not want to lose it. This throws up an important contradiction which any trading approach must resolve.

The way to grow capital quickly is by trading stocks which promise a higher return per trade. These are stocks with greater volatility. They can move up dramatically, and move down dramatically. This increases the risk of loss if the trade fails.

An important caveat here. This increases the risk of loss only if the trader follows a buy and hold strategy. The market experience in 2008 clearly demonstrated this. The returns from many managed and superannuation funds also confirmed this.

The first powerful impact of risk management is understanding that the trader manages risk. The market does not manage risk. The ‘I’m in for the long term’ approach believes that the market manages risk, so simply by waiting any losses can be managed. The market creates a risk environment which we manage through our own actions.

Resolving this contradiction and reconciling it with the need to protect capital involves two steps. The first is to classify stocks according to their volatility. Rather than create new categories for this, I used existing categories – blue chip, mid cap, and speculative – as a shorthand. This decision has plagued me ever since and has been a source of confusion for some readers of Share Trading. The second is to allocate capital in a way that maximizes returns within a money management structure that protects capital, and which grows capital as a result of trading activity. This is the essence of the 6 to 21 strategy.




To read more articles and commentaries from Daryl Guppy, click HERE

***

Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Best-Selling Author Mr. Daryl Guppy. For more articles and commentaries from Daryl Guppy, click HERE.

Saturday, August 8, 2009

Markets in the region have started to take a breather, including the Malaysian equity market which seems to be performing better. The FBMKLCI continues to climb another 23.31 points or 2% in one week to close at 1,183.97 points Thursday after breaking the 1,160 points resistance level. The sentiment remains bullish as the benchmark index is able to stay above this level. Neighbour Singapore has taken a breather last week, falling 1.32% at 2,601.50 points while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed only 1.1%. The best performances in the region are Vietnam and Thailand where the benchmark indices rose 6.5% and 4.4% respectively. Overall, market is slightly bullish last week.

In the United States, initial job claims fell to a level that is better than expected but continuing claims rose. Same-store sales registered the second worst decline for the year. same-store sales fell for the 11th consecutive month in July, by 5.1% after declining by 5.7% in June, the worst performance for this year. Investors are keenly awaiting government's nonfarm payrolls report for July in order to get an updated read on the employment picture before market opens on Friday.

In Malaysia, economic developments have been positive. According to the Statistics Department in a preliminary release on Aug 5, Malaysia registered total exports of RM45.1 billion in June, the highest monthly value for this year. Exports rose 5.1% month-on-month but fell 22.6% year-on-year. Trading volume in Bursa Malaysia has increased a little with an average daily volume of 1.17 billion shares last week, about 10% more than the previous two weeks. This shows a little more confidence in the equity market.

On the chart, the FBM KLCI up trend looks strong and solid with the short to long term 30 to 90-day moving averages increasing steadily. The benchmark index still moves within the uptrend channel of S1 and R1 and is still maintains near the resistance level (R1) after three weeks. This shows how bullish the market is but chartists fear that being at the resistance level and being overbought, the market may need to take a breather. The longer it takes to go into a correction, the bigger and faster the correction is going to be.

However, the bulls are very dominant in supporting the current trend. This can be shown from the momentum indicators. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator still maintains above the 70 points level. Bulls are in control if the RSI is above 50. The MACD is still rising but has shown a little weakness. The MACD looks like it’s going to cut below its 9-day moving average or trigger line. The Momentum indicator has also shown short term weakness by declining from 110 to 103. However, the bulls are still in control if the Momentum indicator stays above 100. The ADX indicator still shows no sign of weakening momentum. Overall, the strength of the current up trend is still strong.

The 20-day Bollinger Bands width has started to decline this week but not aggressively and the FBMKLCI is moving away from the top band of this indicator. The volatility has started to ease. The shorter-term volatility indicator, the 3-day Average True Range (ATR) has declined from 16 points to 10 points. These two indicators are showing that the market is currently in a mild correction.

While the market is going through a very short term correction, will the correction last? I think that it is time for the market to take a short breather before continuing its journey because of the weakening momentum in the short term. Based on longer trend and momentum indicator analysis, there is a chance that the market can go higher and I have mentioned earlier in my analysis that the next resistance to test is 1,300 points and the indicators are still supporting the FBMKLCI to move to this level, at least for now.

The trend is expected to continue if it can stay in the uptrend channel and the support level for this up trend channel is currently at 1,120 points but the main support to remain bullish is 1,160 points. The Ichimoku Cloud shows no sign of reversal in the next month and is steadily increasing. The indicator also shows that the trend is supported well.


Daily FBMKLCI chart with volume as at 6 August 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor Professional


****

Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Chief Market Strategist of Nextview, Mr. Benny Lee. For more articles and commentaries from Benny, click HERE.

Thursday, August 6, 2009

Rubber price - bullish

The price of rubber has been trading sideways between $150 and $180 for more than three months in the month of April through mid July. The price went above the $180 level just a week ago, indicating that the correction is over and the bulls are taking charge. The price trend is generally up as the long term 90 day has been increasing since April. The short term 30 and 60-day moving averages have now started to converge with the long term average after declining for more than two months.


Daily Rubber (TOCOM Rubber futures) chart with volume as at 31 July 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor Professional

The breakout of the correction period is supported by strong bullish momentum. The RSI, MACD and Momentum indicators are making new highs and this means that there is a high chance that the price may continue to go higher. Based on a chart pattern formation, the immediate price target for rubber is $210 with an extended target at $230, based on a Fibonacci retracement level of 50% from the long term bear trend that started in mid-2008. Support level is current at $180, the previous resistance level that was broken. If the price falls back below $180, then we may expect price to move sideways again.

****

Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Chief Market Strategist of Nextview, Mr. Benny Lee. For more articles and commentaries from Benny, click HERE.

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

Up trend developing steadily. The NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Crude Oil price has developed a healthy up trend since the steep fall from US$145 in July last year to a low of $35 earlier this year. The current price is $69.50. The price movement has formed an up trend line supported by the pivot low in early this year and the recent pivot low 3 weeks ago. The price is also being supported by the 15 and 30-week moving average which has now crossed to form a bullish reversal in the long term.


Daily Crude Oil chart with volume as at 31 July 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor Professional

The up trend is supported by good bullish momentum indicated by increasing highs from the RSI, MACD and Momentum indicators. With this strong momentum, there is a high chance that the prices of crude oil to create a new high for this year and possibly test the resistance level at $77, based on a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the long term bear trend. Support is at the up trend line and moving averages at $60.

****

Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Chief Market Strategist of Nextview, Mr. Benny Lee. For more articles and commentaries from Benny, click HERE.


The Vietnam market has been performing very well since the VNI hitting a bottom of 235.5 points in end February this year. The market took a turn and rallied more than 100% to close at a high of 512.46 points on the 9th of June. Then the market took a breather and corrected downwards to 412.88 points (support level of an uptrend line) before rebounding to close at 466.76 points today. However, just about two years ago, the benchmark index was above 1,000 points.


Daily VNI chart as at 31 July 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

Technically, the market is still in a major up trend correction with the short term 30-day moving average declining while the longer term 60 and 90-day moving averages are increasing. The Momentum indicators which shows bearish domination last month has changed its course to be bullish. The RSI and Momentum indicators are now above the mid-level that separates bull and bear strength. This means that the bulls are likely going to take the market out of the correction and bring it to test the 520 points resistance level again. Support level is at 410 points.

****

Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Chief Market Strategist of Nextview, Mr. Benny Lee. For more articles and commentaries from Benny, click HERE.

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Gold Price Analysis

Technically gold is still in a long term uptrend. This is true despite the fact that the high of 1033.90 on February 20, 2008 has not yet been exceeded. Near term, however, say for the month of August 2009, the outlook is not so bullish. In February 2009 there was a test of the 2008 high. The market rejected the attempt but the resulting decline was relatively modest in US dollar terms. Another attempt to test the high may be underway at this time but the attempt appears to be struggling.

Bullish factors – Gold closed higher on the monthly chart during 2009 than in 2008, but with a lower high. The monthly close in May was the highest is modern history, but without a higher high. The persistent uptrend that began in 1999 has already had a correction of almost 50%. The move up from October 24/08 to February 20/09 was strong.

Bearish Factors – Recent fluctuations in value have been corrective rather than trending. The 7 month old rising trend line has been broken to the downside. Third failure to reach a new high will have bearish implications.


Daily Gold chart as at 30 July 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor. Click on chart for larger view.

TECHNICALS
Most popular indicators on monthly and weekly charts are in positive territory, but with low momentum.

MACD – flat at 50

NextView RSI – at 50 level

Stochastic – declining from Over Bought.

SMA 200 – at 880., rising slightly

EMA20 – flat, above current price

TL1- seven month old trend line, which has been penetrated to the downside and is now being tested.

TL2 – five month declining trendline.

R1 – resistance level at 966.70 R2 – 1007.70

S1 – Nearby support at 904.80 S2 - 865.60 S3- 806. (not shown on chart)

****

Article and Commentary by Don Schellenberg. A trader and trading coach, he is a noted expert on Market Structure, Elliott Wave and Fibonacci. He trades the forex market.
The Thailand market went into a downward correction after the SETI rallying slightly above 50% from about 410 points in March to 628 points on 12 June. The SETI then went to a low of 560 points in mid-April before ascending to the current level of 624 points. Despite the political uncertainty in Thailand, the market performed pretty well. Just a year ago the benchmark index was trading above 800 points. Therefore the SETI has retraced 50% from the bear trend that started in early 2008 and this is comparable to markets like Singapore and Hong Kong.


Daily KLCI chart with volume as at 31 July 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor Professional

Technically, the market is still in a major up trend correction with the short term 30-day moving average declining while the longer term 60 and 90-day moving averages are increasing. The bulls have taken over from the bears last week when momentum-based technical indicators like the RSI and Momentum are now above the mid-level. With this bullish momentum, the SETI may test and break above the 640 points resistance level and possible move to the next resistance level at 700 points. SETI support level is at 560 points.

****

Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Chief Market Strategist of Nextview, Mr. Benny Lee. For more articles and commentaries from Benny, click HERE.
The price of FCPO went under the long term 90-day average last month and continues to move downwards within the down trend channel defined by the S1 and R1 lines in the chart below. The price went to the support level at S1 in mid-July at around RM 1,990 per metric ton and created an opportunity to go long. At this point, the RSI was in a divergence in with FCPO down trend. The price then rallied to the current level at RM 2,189. For those who are able to long at the support level there is a RM100 opportunity in half a month.

Now, the price of FCPO is at the resistance level of the down trend channel and slightly below the 90-day moving average which is currently at RM2,350. The momentum indicators are diverging against the current down trend. The RSI, MACD and Momentum indicators are rising when price is falling. This means that the down trend is weak and a trend reversal is expected.
The price of FCPO is currently at the long term average, defined from the 15 and 30-week average. With a bullish momentum forming, the current level may be attractive in the long term. The short term down trend may change its course.


Daily KLCI chart with volume as at 31 July 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor Professional

Although price is currently at the downtrend resistance level, there is a high chance of price moving higher because of the developing bullish momentum and especially if it breaks above the immediate resistance level which is currently at the RM2,250 and rally to the next resistance level at RM2,350. A more optimistic level is at RM2,800.

****

Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Chief Market Strategist of Nextview, Mr. Benny Lee. For more articles and commentaries from Benny, click HERE.

The Singapore market was extremely bullish last month after about a month of consolidation in June especially after breaking above the 2,400 points resistance level. The bulls continue starts to dominate the market in early July and the STI rallied 326 points or 14% in a month to close at 2,659.20 points end of July. The Singapore market is one of the best performing markets in the Asian region last month. The benchmark index has already increased 82% from the low in March this year.


Daily STI chart with volume as at 31 July 2009 using NextVIEW Advisor Professional

Technical indicators turned positive again especially momentum indicators that measures trend strength. The RSI, ADX and Momentum indicators continue to make new highs since early July and this means that the current up trend or rally can be sustained. Therefore, there is a high chance for the STI to climb higher but there is a technical resistance at 2,680 points, based on the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the end-2007 to early-2009 bear trend. If the STI is able to break above this resistance level, then the next resistance level is at 3,000 points. Support level remains at 2,400 points with a minor support at 2,500 points.

****

Article contributed by Private Trader, Market Expert, Trading Coach and Chief Market Strategist of Nextview, Mr. Benny Lee. For more articles and commentaries from Benny, click HERE.